Below, occasional updates will be posted on the significant coastal storm currently affecting the region.
11:05 PM: Last Round of Heavy Rain
Heavier rain moved into the area over the last few hours accompanied by increasing winds, with LaGuardia airport currently reporting 41 mph wind gusts. The low pressure is currently near southeastern New Jersey with a minimum pressure near 990 mb and is moving north, which is noticeably to the east of the expectation from yesterday, when most models took the low either over New Jersey or through eastern Pennsylvania.
A band of heavy rain is currently located near NYC and western Long Island, and is moving to the NW. This will be the last widespread band of heavy rain from the storm, as a dry slot is expanding north, bringing an earlier end to the steady precipitation than expected, likely by 12-1 AM for NYC and further west. East of NYC, the steady precipitation will last a little longer before ending. After 1 AM, there will still be some rain though, with locally heavy showers possible especially to the east of NYC.
This is the last storm update for tonight. The next forecast will be posted on Monday evening.
7:00 PM: Heavy Rain Approaching
Throughout the afternoon hours, a steady light to moderate rain continued to fall across the area as the rain associated with the low pressure became more widespread, expanding to the north and west. The low pressure is currently down to at least 992 mb near southeastern Virginia, and is slowly moving to the north. As the low pressure continues to intensify, the winds are becoming stronger and more widespread as well; a 58 mph gust was previously reported near Cape May Harbor in southern NJ, and gusty winds are also starting to affect coastal parts of the NYC area.
The latest radar posted above shows that the heaviest rain associated with the storm is currently near southern NJ along with windy conditions. This band of heavy rain will spread to the north over the next few hours, starting to affect NYC after 8-9 PM. Heavy rain and windy conditions will last through at least 2 AM, when the heavy rain will move to the north of the area. Locally heavy showers will still move through NYC and places further north/east through at least 4-5 AM, with isolated showers through the rest of Monday. Rain totals are still expected to end up between 2 and 3 inches across the area, with locally higher amounts up to 3.5 inch possible.
2:45 PM: Rain Intensifying
Since last night’s update, the low pressure off the Southeast coast began to move up the coast while intensifying, and is currently a 996 mb low south of North Carolina. Light rain developed across the area early this morning, and as the low pressure intensified, the rain also became heavier and more widespread, with a steady light-moderate rain currently covering the entire area. Rainfall amounts observed so far are generally under 1/4 inch.
The low pressure currently south of North Carolina will continue to intensify while moving north. As it becomes negatively tilted, the rain will begin to extend more towards the north and west as well, with heavier rain forming later this afternoon near the southeastern Mid Atlantic and expanding to the east and west while moving north. This area of heavy rain will affect the area between at least 8-10 PM and 2 AM, which is when the worst of the storm will take place. Gusty winds are also expected, with gusts peaking around 35-45 mph in the immediate NYC area and 40-50 mph in Long Island and southern CT. The rain will begin to weaken after 2 AM, with isolated showers and winds gusting up to 40-45 mph lasting through Monday and Tuesday. Rain totals are expected to end up between 2 and 3 inches across most of the area, ending up locally closer to 3.5 inches. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the afternoon and evening.