April 13, 2012 Brief Update

The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated for the immediate NYC area through Tuesday night. The next update, including a full discussion, will be posted on Sunday, April 15.
Drought Update: The next, and perhaps only, chance of widespread rain for the area is on Saturday night, when a wave of light to moderate rain will move through, with at least 1/4 inch of rain expected, although it will not be enough to ease the drought. Breezy SW winds will develop on Saturday and Sunday, with SW/SSW winds on Monday gusting up to 30-35 mph. The next cold front will move through around Tuesday, with the possibility of some rain towards the second half of next week along with lighter winds, although at least at this time, there does not appear to be a high probability of significant rain. The risk of brush fires will continue through the first half of the week, possibly into the second half as well if the ECM is incorrect with a very wet mid week storm, which it is currently the only model to show rain in that time frame and is an unlikely scenario at this time.

Forecast Overview:

– Mostly sunny skies will continue today and through the first half of Saturday, with highs today reaching the lower to mid 60s across most of the area and the upper 60s to mid 70s tomorrow. Cloud cover will increase by tomorrow evening.
– Occasional showers are expected on Saturday night, especially after 10 PM, through Sunday morning. No significant rain is expected, with up to 1/4 inch expected to fall. Partly cloudy skies will return on Sunday with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and north/west, and the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island/CT.
– The warmest temperatures are expected on Monday; with breezy SW winds, 850mb temps near 15C, partly/mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, temperatures will rise into the 80s across most of the area, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west. With these conditions, the possibility is there that parts of the immediate NYC area, especially near NE NJ, reach 90 degrees. Upper 70s to mid 80s are expected in Long Island/southern CT except for the immediate coast, which will be cooler.
– A dry cold front will move through on Tuesday, with isolated showers possible overnight and into Wednesday. Highs will cool down back into the 60s for Wednesday/Thursday, although temperatures could warm up towards next weekend along with the next rain chance.

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