Apr 2, 2012: Still Seasonably Mild, Dry

Forecast Highlights:

– Highs in mid 50s to low 60s, dry conditions continue this week
– Little warmer by Sunday/Monday, a little rain, then back to same pattern


Note: With the sudden change in the pattern, the post-winter analysis, originally planned for this week, has been delayed to account for another part of the summary comparing the winter pattern to the pattern that has recently developed. By the end of April, I will post a detailed analysis of this winter, reflecting some reasons that caused it to end up mild with almost no snow, along with verification of the winter outlooks.


With another back door cold front moving into the area behind yesterday’s weak rainstorm, temperatures ended up seasonable across the area, with partly sunny skies, breezy winds, and highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. With a weak blocking pattern near Greenland keeping troughs stuck over the region through the end of this week, little changes are expected in the pattern, with temperatures staying in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Saturday along with dry conditions. A brief warm up is expected towards the weekend and possibly Monday, although seasonable temperatures are likely to return again towards the middle of next week.

Forecast Overview:

With the pattern still the same, there are little changes in the expectations for this week and the weekend. Highs are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies, with partly sunny skies and similar temperatures for Wednesday. An isolated shower may be possible on Tuesday night, but no widespread rain is expected. Mostly to partly sunny skies then return for the rest of the week with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s on Thursday, mid to upper 50s on Friday with 60 degrees possible near NYC, and upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday with mid 60s near NYC.

As a cold front approaches for Sunday and Monday, winds will turn towards the south/SSE as a warm air mass briefly moves through, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, passing 65 degrees in parts of northern NJ/SE NY, and the 50s to low 60s in Long Island and southern CT. Despite model differences with the location and timing of the cold front, it does not appear to be a wet one, with light rain possible towards Monday. Uncertainty increases due to the time range going later into next week, but seasonable temperatures are likely to return after the weak cold front.

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