Mar 25, 2012: Cold Returns By Monday

Forecast Highlights:

– Some light rain tonight, cloudy again on Sunday
– Windy on Monday; much colder on Tuesday
– Slightly warmer ending to next week with light rain possible
– No significant warm spell or big rain event in sight through medium range


Today’s Overview:

With the cutoff low moving into the area, much colder temperatures were observed today compared to the record warmth observed until yesterday. Cloud cover was mainly cloudy across the area, but the coverage area of the rain was more isolated than expected with some breaks in the cloud cover, which helped to bring temperatures very slightly warmer than the forecast; highs reached the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and southern CT.

The storm is ending up further south and slightly weaker than modeled, keeping almost all of the rain to the north and south of the area, although scattered showers will affect the area tonight, with up to 1/4 inch expected, and some more isolated showers are possible on Sunday. With the storm moving out, however, some changes in the pattern will continue to take place, with much colder temperatures returning by Monday night and Tuesday. There does not appear to be any big warmth in sight, however, starting what may be a colder and dry pattern for the area through parts of early April.

Forecast Overview:

Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy skies will continue through tomorrow with isolated showers possible, but no widespread rain again. Highs are expected to be similar to those of today, a little warmer west of NYC and colder east of NYC.

Monday – Wednesday: The coldest air mass since early March will move into the region, bringing below average temperatures. Windy conditions are expected on Monday with gusts up to 40 mph possible, with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and the lower to upper 50s across the rest of the area. With clearing skies, temperatures will quickly drop overnight, and are likely to reach the 20s in northern NJ, SE NY, and southern CT. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with increased cloud cover on Wednesday along with highs returning back into the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of the area and the possibility of a few showers.

Wednesday Night – Beyond: The next low pressure to move through the region will be on Wednesday night into Thursday, but once again will feature very little rain. Although there is no official drought yet, especially considering that last year was one of the wettest on record, the change in the pattern has been quite extreme as this year so far has been very dry; March is almost over and parts of the area have yet to even reach 1/4 inch of rain for the monthly total. There does not appear to be any wet pattern developing through the medium range, and while the longer range is still uncertain, should this dry pattern continue through the rest of the spring, drought may become a concern. Additional updates will be posted occasionally regarding the dry pattern and any possibilities of a wetter pattern developing.

Behind this low pressure, another weak trough will move into the area for the late week, with highs staying in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. While this is not a strong, sustained cold pattern, which also does not appear to be supportive enough of any late season snow potentials reaching the area, this pattern is expected to support temperatures staying closer to average, along with drier than average conditions. There are mixed signals regarding the rest of the spring and summer, but this current pattern is likely to last through at least early April, if not beyond.

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