A more detailed update will be posted later tonight, although for now I posted a short discussion focusing on the two light snow events. The 5-Day Forecast will also be updated tonight.
Today / Tonight: Light Snow, Mostly South of NYC
The latest radar posted to the left shows that widespread light to moderate snow is affecting Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Earlier today the radar had the appearance that the snow was aiming straight at NYC, but a coastal low is currently developing off the coast of the Mid Atlantic, which is causing the snow in Pennsylvania to collapse with more precipitation developing closer to the coastal low, towards the eastern Mid Atlantic.
Some snow showers are still expected for the area, but the best risk of something more than flurries is from NYC and further south/east, with a dusting of snow possible. The steadier light snow with accumulations in the 1/4 to 1 inch range is expected to end up from central New Jersey and further south, although light accumulations up to 1/4 inch in the case that heavier precipitation spreads in from the southwest may be possible up to NYC.
Friday Night – Saturday Night: Widespread Snow Showers Likely
The time frame around next weekend, which is in the time frame which I mentioned since my January 27 update could include at least one snow event, is looking more likely to bring widespread snow showers for the region. The pattern has already temporarily changed as the polar vortex in Alaska has been displaced for a longer period of time and instead is displaced near the Hudson Bay, is allowing for slightly more sustained cold air to affect the region. With this temporary pattern change, the recent snow events so far have stayed south of the area surprisingly, as observed last weekend and again today, and while the weekend event is also likely to mostly stay offshore, more widespread precipitation is expected.
A large trough will drop from the Great Lakes into the region during the weekend, with the cold front likely to bring widespread snow showers and snow squalls, especially in the interior Northeast but in parts of the area as well. Along with the snow shower potential, a coastal low is likely to develop further offshore. Exactly how far offshore it develops is still uncertain, with solutions ranging from light rain/snow on the CMC to a steadier light snow with light accumulations on the ECMWF. The set up is unfavorable for a coastal storm to rapidly intensify right along the coast to provide a significant snow event for the area, although the potential is there that should the coastal low develop close enough to the coast and end up slightly stronger, a period of light snow for the area, mixing with light rain near and southeast of the I-95 corridor, may be possible, along with more snow for eastern New England. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend outlook with tonight’s discussion.