4:50 PM: Yesterday’s updated 5-Day Forecast added an increased risk of accumulating snow for most of the area; the latest model guidance, however, is quickly catching onto a trend with the storm in the Midwest before it reaches the region that was not seen before, with a stronger and further north storm in the Midwest tomorrow, along with less confluence than originally expected, which strongly favors a trend which, as with countless other cases during this non-winter, once again significantly reduces the chance for snow in New York City.
The latest 5-Day Forecast, updated this afternoon, removed the mention of snow in NYC other than a brief 1-2 hour period in the late morning when light snow could mix with the rain. Light snow accumulations are expected to be limited to interior southern CT, interior SE NY and parts of NW NJ. For now, 1-3 inches is a likely accumulation range, but is still subject to change, and should the latest trends continue, the potential 1-3 inch range may be too high. Tonight’s update will discuss why the models changed with the storm in more details and why there will not be much, if any snow for NYC and its immediate north/west suburbs with this storm.