Feb 19, 2012: 60+ Degrees Late Next Week?

Forecast Highlights:

– Chilly, dry start to week
– Warmer later next week, 60+ degrees possible
– Rain returns for Tuesday through early Saturday


A suppressed storm affected the Mid Atlantic today, bringing widespread accumulating snow as far south as southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, with reports as high as 8-10 inches in the higher elevations. With the storm staying well to the south of the area, mostly to partly sunny skies were observed today with high temperatures reaching the mid 40s across the area.

Briefly cooler temperatures will stick around through Monday, although a ridge will build into the region again by the middle of next week. As a few storms move through the region, more clouds and rain are expected for the second half of the week, and at least one day may reach 60 degrees.

Week Overview:

Monday will be the coolest day of the week. With a high pressure in place, mostly sunny skies are expected along with highs in the lower to mid 40s across the area. Temperatures will slightly warm up on Tuesday as the cold moves out, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the area.

The forecast becomes more complicated for the second half of next week as several low pressures move to the northwest of the area, but the overall theme for this time frame is mild, mostly cloudy and rainy. Wednesday will likely feature mostly cloudy skies with a risk of showers in the morning, with temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s inland and the mid to upper 50s across the rest of the area. Thursday’s temperatures are uncertain depending on the location of the next low pressure; although for now, I went with temperatures similar to those of Wednesday, should the storm end up further north, temperatures on Thursday may get close to 60 degrees.

The biggest uncertainty right now is with Friday’s forecast, as the models develop a strong storm well to the northwest of the area, which makes more sense than a suppressed storm due to a large ridge likely in place prior to the storm. With the trough axis near the central US, the possibility is there for a medium or strong intensity storm to form to the west of the area on Friday into Friday night, which would result in rain and warm temperatures. How warm temperatures get will depend on the location of the storm and the warm front, but temperatures in the 50s are expected again, and should the area be in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures could easily reach and pass 60 degrees. The cold front is likely to move through overnight, with a dry weekend likely to set up. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for late next week.

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