Feb 16, 2012 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

– Tomorrow and Saturday will both be warmer than average. Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

– By Saturday night, the northern stream will end up too fast to phase with the southern shortwave, completely ruling out a strong storm scenario like yesterday’s GFS runs. With this difference, light snow will move through the Northeast on Saturday night, and while most of the light snow will stay to the north of the area, I added a risk of flurries in the forecast for Saturday night.

– The trend away from a phase is leaving the suppressed solution, mentioned last night as the likely solution, as the main scenario for the storm, with most of the moderate snow staying south of Maryland to southern NJ. The models will still continue to shift slightly south or north, and at this time I am still expecting most of, if not all of the snow to stay south of NYC. Despite this, a few snow showers could reach the area should the storm trend north. Stay tuned for a detailed discussion on the storm on Friday night.

– Behind the storm, windy conditions will develop for Sunday night into Monday, with lows in the upper 10s to upper 20s and highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will gradually warm up well into the 40s and possibly the lower 50s by the middle of next week, with rain possible for that time frame as well.

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