Jan 27, 2012: Mild Pattern Continues Next Week

Last night, widespread light rain fell across the area with temperatures still stuck in the 30s inland and the lower 40s closer to the coast. A warm front brought much warmer temperatures this afternoon especially for coastal areas, however, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 50s in NW NJ/SE NY and the upper 50s to lower 60s across the rest of the area. Newark and LaGuardia reached 60 degrees today, which is over 20 degrees warmer than average, making today the second time this month that temperatures reached the 60s in parts of the area.Windy conditions were also observed today, with gusts ending up in the 35-45 mph range for most places.

Temperatures will gradually cool down but remain warmer than average throughout the weekend, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s tomorrow and in the lower to mid 40s on Sunday. Another low pressure will move into the northern Northeast, however, once again bringing temperatures well into the 50s across the area for the middle of next week. A slight cool down followed by rain and possibly some snow for the late week is expected, although there are signals showing up that beyond the late week, the pattern may become slightly more favorable for cold and some snow for the area.

Weekend Outlook:

Partly sunny skies are expected to return for tomorrow with dry conditions as well as a weak low pressure bring scattered snow showers for the Northeast. Temperatures will still remain warmer than average, however, peaking in the mid to upper 40s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the area. An isolated snow shower may be possible tomorrow night in the north/west parts of the area.

Another weak low pressure will move through the region on Sunday, bringing increased cloud cover and temperatures reaching the lower to mid 40s across the area. More widespread snow showers are possible for Sunday night with low temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s inland and the mid 20s to lower 30s across the rest of the area, although if any of the snow accumulates, a dusting is expected at most.

Monday – Wednesday: Warming Up Again

The milder pattern the region has seen since the start of this week will continue through most of next week as well, with the coldest day, Monday, still bringing near average temperatures, with highs reaching the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to possibly lower 40s across the rest of the area. As a low pressure moves into the Northeast, temperatures will begin to warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday with a southwest wind developing. Mostly sunny skies are expected again on Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s, with Wednesday bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies along with highs reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area, possibly even getting into the upper 50s near NYC in the warmer case scenario. Isolated showers are possible in the evening and overnight hours as a weak cold front moves through the region, although no significant precipitation is expected.

Thursday – Beyond: Stormier Pattern; Some Snow?

Uncertainty increases for the longer range starting on Thursday, although some models are showing the potential for a storm to affect the region between Thursday and Saturday. There has been a wide variety of solutions on the models for this storm, and while some snow could perhaps be possible for parts of the area, given the set up, at this time it appears that the Northeast would be more likely to see a snowstorm in this time frame should the storm affect the region. Behind this storm, however, while not immediate, some changes in the pattern are likely, including a stronger +PNA developing, which may result in colder temperatures for the eastern US starting around February 5-7, and between February 5 and 15, at least one snow event may affect the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range, including the late week storm potential.

5 thoughts on “Jan 27, 2012: Mild Pattern Continues Next Week

  1. Anonymous Reply

    I think you mean February and not December on your long range out look. Hoping for a storm this coming week end.

  2. NYC Weather Reply

    With the pattern in place, storms are unable to produce severe thunderstorms in the area, as is typical during the winter months. Severe thunderstorms typically begin to become more frequent by April and May as the storm track shifts north and temperatures become warmer.

  3. Anonymous Reply

    Man, I love watching severe thunderstorm and i watch it in a radar, i even drew it. I want these heavy thunderstorm here for NYC.

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