Early this morning, a surprise round of overrunning precipitation moving into the cold air in place resulted in a light rain, snow and sleet mix across most of the area, with a coating of snow observed. The cold air was much stronger than expected near the surface, with temperatures only reaching the mid 30s inland and the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area. The area has changed over to rain except for the higher elevations near NW NJ and Orange county, NY, which are seeing some freezing rain.
After the rain tonight, much warmer temperatures will return for tomorrow, reaching 60 degrees in areas near NYC. Colder temperatures will return by Sunday and Monday, although temperatures will stay above average through the end of next week temperatures. The next storm is expected to affect the region with isolated showers and yet another round of mild temperatures around the middle of next week, although there are growing indications that chances for slightly more cold and perhaps snow may increase by the first full week of February.
Tonight And Tomorrow: Rain, Wind, Warmer
As previously mentioned, temperatures at the surface were much colder than expected as the CAD (cold air damming) is stronger than expected. As a result, temperatures tonight will be colder than previously expected, sticking in the mid to upper 30s inland and the lower 40s across the rest of the area, reaching the mid 40s in Long Island by tomorrow morning. Any freezing rain in the N/W parts of the area will change over to rain by 12-1 AM.
Occasional rain will continue to fall tonight, with at least 1/4 inch of rain expected as most of the rain falls to the north of the area. By the morning hours tomorrow, a line of moderate to locally heavy rain will move through the area with gusty winds, up to 35-40 mph with some storms. Temperatures will rise ahead of the cold front early tomorrow afternoon, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 50s across the area. Parts of the immediate NY area are even expected to reach the 60-63 degree range for highs! Most of the rain will end by the early afternoon hours tomorrow with a storm total of 1/2 to 1 inch expected, locally higher in some areas north and west of NYC, with temperatures dropping by tomorrow evening.
Weekend – Next Week: Still Warmer Than Average
Another mild day is expected for Saturday, with partly sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area. Cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 40s for most of the area, and Monday will be the coldest day, with highs in the mid to upper 30s across the area.
Warmer temperatures will once again spread into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure stays to the north of the area; Tuesday is expected to bring temperatures back into the upper 40s to lower 50s, and although there is uncertainty on the exact location of the storm on Wednesday, it is likely to be far north enough to allow temperatures to rise back up above 50 degrees, perhaps getting into the mid 50s in parts of the area in the warmer case scenario. Colder temperatures will return by next weekend, with the potential for another storm to affect the region either in the late week or the early weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.
Early February Outlook:
More information on the potential pattern for early February, including the next snow chance for the area, has been posted in the Long Range Forecasts page.