Jan 15, 2012: Interior Wintry Mix Tomorrow Night

With a cold air mass moving into the region today, colder temperatures were observed again across the area, with temperatures dropping into the 10s last night before peaking in the lower to mid 20s across the area today with mainly sunny skies. With a high pressure moving in, temperatures are already dropping, and are expected to drop into the single digits for the interior parts of the area tonight. Warmer temperatures will return tomorrow, with a wintry mix inland tomorrow night changing over to rain on Wednesday, and although cooler temperatures will return for Thursday and Friday with isolated snow showers, this cold will only be brief as significant warmth begins to return towards next weekend.

Monday – Tuesday Night: Wintry Mix To Start Inland

Increasing clouds are expected tomorrow with temperatures rising into the mid 30s across most of the area. Temperatures aloft at 850mb will quickly rise above freezing, although surface temperatures will take longer to warm up, resulting in the potential for sleet and freezing rain on Tuesday night towards interior northern NJ and SE NY, although any ice amounts are expected to stay below 0.1 inch.

With warmer temperatures moving in near the surface, warmer temperatures will return by Wednesday with the interior parts of the area changing over to rain in the morning. The low pressure, however, will still be near the Great Lakes on Wednesday while moving NE, meaning that temperatures will only gradually warm up throughout the day, starting out in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees in the morning before reaching the lower to mid 40s inland and the mid 40s across the rest of the area by the evening. The warmest temperatures are expected overnight, towards, 12 AM, when temperatures are likely to peak in the mid to upper 40s across most of the area. The cold front will move through in the overnight hours, with most of the rain expected to end by 2 AM with a total of near 1/2 inch of rain possible. Winds will then increase towards Wednesday morning, gusting up to 30-40 mph. Stay tuned for more information on the interior wintry mix potential.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Temperatures on Wednesday will peak in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area, although colder temperatures will return overnight, dropping again into the 10s north and west of NYC. Thursday will bring increasing clouds with temperatures reaching the mid 30s as a weak low pressure approaches the Northeast. The best chance of snow will stay to the north of the area with widespread snow showers in the Northeast, although a few snow showers are possible across the area. Some of the models, such as the CMC, ECM and DGEX, have been showing the potential for a coating or more of snow, although until a better consensus emerges, I will keep a chance of isolated/scattered snow showers in the forecast. Friday will bring drier conditions again with highs in the mid 30s due to a colder air mass briefly coming in behind the storm.

Another low pressure may affect the region on Saturday into Sunday, although there are different solutions on the models, ranging from isolated precipitation on the GFS to heavy rain on the ECMWF. Given the latest trends, I am leaning with the GFS and CMC supporting only light, scattered precipitation, although a slightly wetter solution could be possible for this time frame. Temperatures will also gradually warm up into the 40s throughout the weekend, with high temperatures by early next week possibly reaching the 50s. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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