Dec 9, 2011: Cold Weekend Ahead

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated for NYC and further west, and will be updated for Long Island and southern CT starting on Saturday. Instead of a brief review on Wednesday’s storm, a more detailed overview of the storm, especially focusing on the forecasting of the storm, will be posted on Saturday evening before the daily evening update.

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Forecast Overview for Week Ahead:

Weekend – Partly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday with colder temperatures, dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and the lower to mid 40s across the rest of the area. As a high pressure moves in, clear skies will move in for Saturday night and Sunday with much colder temperatures, dropping as low as the mid 10s inland and the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC and in southern Connecticut. Parts of New York City will drop below freezing for the first time this winter, reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s. Sunday will bring colder temperatures with sunny skies, peaking in the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area.

Monday – Wednesday: The first half of next week will bring average temperatures for the area, a change from the long lasting spell of above average temperatures since October, but this is not yet a change in the pattern consisting of frequent ridging in the East, as tomorrow’s discussion will explain in more details. Temperatures on Monday through Wednesday are expected to reach the lower to mid 40s across the area, with the immediate NYC area potentially reaching the upper 40s on Monday and/or Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain chilly, dropping into the lower to upper 20s inland and the mid 20s to lower 30s across the rest of the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Monday and Tuesday, with slightly increased cloud cover for Wednesday.

Thursday – Friday: As weak ridging returns into the East, yet another cutoff low is expected to develop near the southwestern US. With no strong push of cold air from Canada or anything to keep the storm suppressed, a low pressure will likely develop near the central US. Whether it moves due east to bring snow to New England or northeast towards the Great Lakes remains to be seen, but with the set up in place, the storm is not expected to bring snow to the NYC area, bringing rain again, with New England the favored area for the snow potential. Temperatures will likely end up warmer on Thursday and Friday, potentially passing 50 degrees on one of these days. Stay tuned for more information on the late week storm potential.

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