Dec 4, 2011: Mainly Cloudy, Rainy Week Ahead

As yet another ridge built into the eastern US today, warmer temperatures returned along with partly cloudy skies, reaching the lower to mid 50s inland and the mid 50s across the rest of the area. As the ridge stays in place, tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures, reaching the 60 degree mark again in parts of the immediate NYC area. The dry and mild conditions won’t last for long, however, as a cold front and several low pressures move  through the region, bringing colder temperatures, more clouds and frequent rain chances throughout the week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

As previously mentioned, warmer temperatures will return tomorrow. With south winds and mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach the upper 50s across most of the area, with lower 60s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Although no rain is expected on Monday, scattered showers will likely develop overnight.

Tuesday – Thursday: Two Rain Potentials

A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday night, bringing more rain. The rain associated with this front won’t be heavy, and around 1/4 inch or a little more is expected between Monday night and Wednesday morning. Mild temperatures are expected on Monday night, stuck in the lower 50s across most of the area, warming up into the mid to upper 50s from NYC and further west and the upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island/S CT. As the front moves through overnight, temperatures will cool down, and Wednesday will bring mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area.

As last night’s brief update mentioned, the potential is there for another storm to affect the area on Thursday. The models continue to show many different solutions, ranging from a snowstorm in northern NJ on the GFS to a heavy rain event on the NAM, a near miss offshore on the ECM, and a wave of low pressure offshore on the CMC. For now, I am siding with the scenario that the storm affects the area, bringing rain on Thursday with the potential for snow in parts of the interior Northeast, although there is still uncertainty with this time frame, and it is possible that the storm stays offshore with mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. If the storm affects the area, however, moderate to potentially heavy rain may be possible, with models showing the storm affecting the area including near or over 1 inch of rain. Stay tuned for more information on this storm potential with tomorrow’s update.

Friday – Weekend: Dry, Cold

Regardless of whether a Thursday storm takes place or not, there is a general model agreement for a stronger cold air mass to move into the region by the weekend. With 850mb temperatures potentially dropping towards -10 degrees celsius, high temperatures have the potential to end up in the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area with widespread low temperatures in the 20s. Temperatures will likely moderate by the second half of next weekend with dry conditions likely to continue.

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