Dec 3, 2011 Evening Update

Due to issues with internet connection as well as work on the winter outlook, no full discussion is posted tonight, although the 5-Day Forecast will be updated on Sunday morning. My final winter outlook will be posted shortly.
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Brief Forecast Update:

 – Temperatures are still expected to steadily warm up. Tomorrow will bring highs into the mid to upper 50s across the area, with widespread lower 60s expected on Monday and Tuesday. The warmest temperatures are expected on Monday, when parts of the immediate NYC area will get close to the 65 degree mark, with slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday.

– There have been significant changes on the models regarding the set up for the mid week storm. Although the change in the forecast for the NYC area is not completely different, there are changes in the timing. The first cold front will move through the area on Tuesday, bringing occasional showers, with colder temperatures for Wednesday, likely bringing highs into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with partly cloudy skies as slightly colder air moves in behind the front.

It now appears that the storm may affect the area on Thursday. The latest model guidance starting this afternoon has been consistent on a storm on Thursday near the coast, although this is still a recent change and the track may change. There is not much cold air associated with this storm, and the precipitation type is expected to be rain. The potential is there that the storm may even stay south of the area, as some models have been suggesting, although if the storm does affect the area, which at this time is more likely, rain would fall during the day on Thursday. Tomorrow’s update will discuss this forecast change in more details.

– Drier conditions are expected to return by Friday with colder temperatures, but this change in the storm is preventing what could have been a stronger cold outbreak across the region from happening. Instead, it appears that another storm may affect the area next weekend, and although details on that storm are still uncertain, at this time it appears that rain will likely be the precipitation type.

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