Dec 24, 2011: Rainy Tuesday, Cold Wednesday

With a colder air mass briefly moving into the region today, temperatures were colder than the last few days, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the mid 30s inland and the mid to upper 30s across the rest of the area. Warmer temperatures will return for Christmas with partly sunny skies, sticking around through Monday before the next storm affects the area on Tuesday night with rain and wind, potentially gusting up to 40 mph in parts of the area. The storm will bring in colder temperatures behind it once again, with briefly below average temperatures likely again for Thursday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook: Mostly Cloudy, Dry

A trough moving into the region will bring partly sunny skies for Christmas with slightly warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s across the rest of the area. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for the overnight hours with the potential for a few isolated rain or snow showers, especially north of NYC.

Monday – Wednesday: Becoming Stormy, Windy

Mostly sunny skies are expected to return for Monday with slightly cooler high temperatures. As a storm approaches the region from the southwest, cloud cover will increase on Tuesday with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 40s across the area and a few isolated showers developing late. There is uncertainty with the exact track of the low pressure, although at this time it is expected to track over New Jersey or NYC, bringing moderate to locally heavy rain for Tuesday night with temperatures reaching a peak towards midnight in the lower 40s inland, mid to upper 40s in most of the immediate NYC area, and the upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. If the storm tracks over New Jersey, temperatures in parts of the immediate NYC area will reach the lower 50s as well. Along with the rain, gusty winds will develop especially as the storm exits, with wind gusts expected to reach the 30 to 40 mph range across most of the area, potentially slightly higher in Long Island. Partly cloudy skies will return for Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s and wind gusts reaching the 30-40 mph range again. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday – Next Weekend: Colder Start, Then Warming Up

A colder air mass will return into the area on Wednesday night, and although there is some uncertainty with the temperatures, the potential is there for lows to drop again into the 10s in interior areas north and west of NYC, making Wednesday night one of the coldest nights so far this winter. High temperatures on Thursday will likely reach the mid to upper 30s across most of the area, with temperatures warming up again for Friday.

Uncertainty returns for the weekend, as the GFS and the CMC show a clipper potentially reaching the region with scattered snow showers, even for parts of the area, while the ECM shows showers with mild temperatures, reaching the 50s once again. All models are not handling the set up completely correct considering the time range, although given the pattern, I would lean towards the slightly warmer solutions at this time, with any potential precipitation over the weekend more likely to fall as snow in the interior Northeast than the NYC area, although in the colder case scenario some snow showers for parts of the area aren’t impossible. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range, including the outlook for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

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