Dec 21, 2011: Mild Pattern Continues Through End Of Month

As this evening’s update mentioned, conditions across the area can be described as fall-like, if not almost summer-like. Temperatures surged into the lower 60s in parts of the area, unusual especially for overnight hours of December, and a squall line moved through the area, producing widespread brief heavy downpours, thunderstorms and gusty winds. Temperatures will drop later tonight into the 40s before rising again into the mid 50s, and although temperatures for Friday and the weekend will be colder, mostly above average temperatures are still likely to continue.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected for Thursday morning, increasing towards the evening hours. Temperatures will be mild again, reaching the lower to mid 50s inland and the mid 50s across the area, potentially reaching the upper 50s near and southwest of NYC.

Temperatures will steadily drop on Thursday night as a weak yet moist wave of low pressure moves through the area, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain between 12-2 AM to about 7-9 AM on Friday. The northern parts of the area, especially towards Orange, Putnam counties, and interior southern CT will mix with some snow, but the best potential for snow will stay in interior southern/central New England. By the time that the storm ends on Friday morning, at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected across the area, with amounts locally above 1 inch possible in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Friday – Weekend: Colder, But Not Significantly Below Average

Last weekend ended up bringing temperatures much colder than expected, especially with the models significantly underestimating the intensity of the cold air mass. Although temperatures will be colder for the weekend, temperatures as cold as those of last weekend are not expected considering that the air mass is not as cold. Friday will bring clearing skies with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 40s inland and the upper 40s across the rest of the area, potentially reaching 50 degrees near NYC.

Saturday will continue with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures reaching the lower 40s inland and the lower to mid 40s across the rest of the area. As a trough approaches from the west, however, mostly cloudy skies are expected for Christmas with chilly yet warmer than average high temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 40s again across most of the area. The potential is there for a storm on Christmas, although not high; the models a few days ago showed a larger storm before backing away yesterday, and although the set up on the models indicates that the potential may be there for some precipitation, more significant changes are needed with the set up to reintroduce the possibility of a larger storm. For now, I am expecting mostly cloudy skies with the potential for scattered rain or snow showers across the area, and although there is a small probability that more precipitation affects at least parts of the area, the probability of this is is very low at this time, and it is much more likely that only isolated precipitation affects the area. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame.

Longer Range: Temperatures on Monday will slightly cool down, with temperatures similar to those of Saturday expected. The trough will once again be pushed out of the area, with temperatures once again climbing into the mid to potentially upper 40s on Tuesday. Colder temperatures are possible for the second half of next week. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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