Dec 19, 2011 Brief Update

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was updated tonight for the immediate NYC area only. A full update will be posted on Tuesday afternoon, with a 5-day forecast for the entire area and a detailed discussion on the upcoming stormy pattern. A brief overview of the forecast has been posted below.

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Tuesday – Thursday: Unusually Mild, Rainy

Temperatures on Tuesday will peak in the lower to potentially mid 40s across the area. Wednesday will bring occasional showers, mainly in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures gradually rising into the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 50s across the area, possibly reaching the upper 50s close to NYC, on Wednesday night, before the cold front moves through with cooler temperatures by the morning. Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies with mild temperatures, reaching the mid 50s across most of the area with upper 50s possible near NYC and parts of Long Island.

Thursday Night: A wave of low pressure will quickly move through the area, bringing light to moderate rain across the area, potentially mixing with light snow in the far northwestern parts of the area. The storm will end on Friday morning, with partly cloudy skies for Friday afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 40s.

Weekend Outlook: Lots Of Uncertainty

The forecast models are showing conflicting indications for the weekend, with some supporting no precipitation, others showing a storm for Saturday night and another one for Monday, and the ECM shows a storm for Sunday. The models are having a lot of issues with handling this time frame, so for now, I kept mostly cloudy skies and a chance for showers, potentially in the form of light snow for parts of the area for Sunday into Monday, but at this time, it appears that the best chance of precipitation could end up sometime between Saturday night and Monday. Stay tuned for more information for the weekend outlook with Tuesday’s discussion.

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