Dec 14, 2011: Warm Late Week, Cold Weekend

Mostly sunny skies were observed across the area today, with less cloud cover than expected. Temepratures were noticeably warmer than expected as well, reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. As a cold front approaches the region tomorrow, more cloud cover is expected with scattered showers along with warmer temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, before slightly cooling down on Saturday but staying above average by as much as 8-12 degrees. Colder temperatures will return for this weekend, with isolated snow showers possible on Sunday, although temperatures will once again warm up next week with more rain on the way.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Cloudy skies are expected for tomorrow, with scattered showers expected especially after 1-3 PM across most of the area. These scattered showers will continue through the evening and early overnight hours, with less than 1/4 inch of rain expected. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the lower 50s inland, mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 50s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Upper 50s are possible near and southwest of NYC, bringing tomorrow’s temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees above average.

Friday – Monday: Dry, Isolated Snow Showers Possible On Sunday

The cold front will move past the area on Friday, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected, but as there isn’t any strong push of cold air immediately behind the front, temperatures will stay mild, peaking in the mid to upper 40s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the area, once again getting to nearly 10 degrees above average near and east of NYC.

A wave of low pressure is expected to affect the Mid Atlantic on Friday night into Saturday with light rain and some snow showers, and while no precipitation is expected in the area, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue overnight into Saturday, with colder high temperatures expected for Saturday, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and the lower to mid 40s across the rest of the area. These temperatures will be some the coldest high temperatures so far this month, but they are still near to slightly warmer than average. A weak disturbance will move through the region on Saturday night into Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected, with scattered snow showers likely in the Northeast. Although uncertain, the potential is there for some of these scattered snow showers to make it into the northern and western parts of the area. High temperatures will be colder on Sunday, reaching the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area, potentially slightly warmer in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Warmer temperatures aloft will return once again by the early week as the trough exits, with temperatures warming up into the mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s across the rest of the area. Dry conditions are expected for Monday with partly sunny skies.

Next Week: Rain Returns; Warmer Than Average Again

There is more uncertainty for the outlook for next week as the models are having issues with handling an approaching system, although there will be a storm approaching the region, and rain is likely to affect the area again sometime between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday. A few models, most notably the GFS, have been showing the potential for front end frozen precipitation before changing over to rain, and although especially for interior areas, some frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out if the storm ends up far south enough with enough cold air initially in place, this storm is expected to bring mostly, if not plain rain across the area. Temperatures are uncertain due to the location of the storm, but are likely to end up above average. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for next week.

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