Nov 4, 2011: Sunny, Chilly Weekend Ahead

Note: A detailed storm summary of last weekend’s snowstorm will be posted on Saturday afternoon.

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As a weak low pressure passed well to the south of the area, today brought clearing skies across the area with windy conditions, with wind gusts reaching the 25-30 mph range across most of the area. High temperatures were relatively chilly but not as cold as they have been early this week, reaching the lower to mid 50s inland and the mid 50s across the rest of the area. Despite temperatures peaking in the 50s throughout most of this week, there are still many snow piles left across the area, which should melt by early next week with increased sunshine and above average temperatures.

A strong trough is currently moving into the region, focusing on the Northeast but bringing cold air into the NYC area as well. This trough is accompanied by a strong high pressure, which will provide a relatively long stretch of dry weather, with the next chance of rain only returning by Thursday, 11/10. Cold overnight lows are expected tonight, dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, but with a stronger ridge building into the region from the west, temperatures will steadily warm up by Sunday and Monday, even getting very close to the 70 degree mark by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The rest of the month should not be as warm, however, as indications are pointing towards a colder pattern setting up by the end of the month.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

With the strong high pressure moving in, tomorrow will bring sunny skies across the area with much lighter winds. A light NNE wind is expected, which combined with 850 mb temperatures between -1 and -3 degrees celsius, high temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and the lower 50s across the rest of the area, although parts of Rockland/Westchester counties and interior southern CT may peak at or just below the 50 degree mark.

Sunday – Wednesday: Gradually Warming Up

The low pressure currently affecting the southern Mid Atlantic will be forced to stay well offshore due to the strong high pressure, significantly weakening while stalling to the south of Bermuda. For the next five days, this storm will stay out of the picture for the region, but it will be watched for impact later in the week, as I will discuss in more details in the next section. The high pressure will remain stuck over the region, which will keep sunny skies in the forecast through Monday. Temperatures will gradually warm up, reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area on Sunday, and the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area on Monday. Parts of NE New Jersey may reach the mid 60s on Monday.

The warmest temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, when temperatures will get very close to the 70 degree mark. The high pressure is not in an ideal position for the warmest potential temperatures, however, which will prevent most of, if not all of the area from reaching the 70 degree mark. Regardless, above average temperatures are expected, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s across the area on both of these days. As a low pressure develops well to the west of the region and approaches, cloud cover will increase, with partly cloudy skies expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday Into Next Weekend: Another Storm, Then Dry

The high pressure will not keep the region dry for much longer, as a low pressure moving towards the Great Lakes will bring the next rainstorm into the region. The storm will move through the Lakes region on Thursday, bringing its cold front towards Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the storm from today which will drift south of Bermuda this weekend will become involved with the forecast again. The low pressure will remain stalled in that region for a few days, but as the cold front approaches the region, it will drift NW towards the Mid Atlantic, bringing moisture from the Atlantic Ocean into the region. This, combined with a likely secondary low, will bring moderate rain into the area for Thursday and Thursday night, and if a stronger secondary low than currently expected forms, the rain may be extended into Friday as well. Rain amounts are uncertain at this time, but even though high rainfall amounts are not expected, the potential is there for near or possibly over 1 inch of rain in parts of the area. Dry conditions are likely to return into the area by next weekend with colder temperatures, along with high temperatures dropping back into the 50s. Stay tuned for more information on the storm for late next week.

3 thoughts on “Nov 4, 2011: Sunny, Chilly Weekend Ahead

  1. SalBlandino Reply

    Oh no, please don’t let that secondary low form because I would hate for it to also rain on Friday as Friday is my sister’s wedding and I will be wearing a tuxedo. Please keep Friday dry. I’m happy though that dry weather will return by next weekend. I wouldn’t make a big deal about Friday if it wasn’t my sister’s wedding. Normally I don’t care if it rains during the work week but this Friday is a special occasion. Ok please comment back when you get this.

  2. NYC Weather Reply

    There’s still uncertainty on the secondary low formation, so for now I am keeping a chance of rain (about 40%) in the forecast for Friday, but if it does rain on Friday, the best chance of rain will be in the first half of the day, unless the secondary low is much stronger, which has only a low chance of happening at this time but may still change.

    I also sent you an email, please read it when you get the chance to.

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