Nov 29, 2011: Colder Temperatures Return Tomorrow

After a cutoff low pressure formed over the southeastern US yesterday, bringing an unusual late November snowstorm to southwestern Tennessee and Arkansas, the storm moved northeast towards the area today, bringing an end to the 5-day warm spell, when temperatures surged to record breaking temperatures twice, even ending up over 20 degrees warmer than average yesterday. Today’s temperatures were slightly colder yet still well above average, peaking in the mid 60s across the area, ending up slightly lower in some areas such as southern Connecticut.
The cold front is currently moving through the area, as can be seen in the radar image posted to the left. The rain is clearing the area much earlier than forecast; I expected the rain to end by at least 12-2 AM, which was faster than some models keeping the rain through 2 AM, yet the rain has already cleared most places west of NYC as of 11 PM. Temperatures will drop tomorrow into the 50s across the area, staying there through Friday, but despite the drop, temperatures will remain above average. After slightly colder conditions on Saturday, temperatures will warm up again for early next week as rain returns into the forecast again.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Behind the front, a colder air mass will move into the region, bringing colder yet still above average temperatures. As the cold air mass is approaching the area from the southwest, an unusual direction for a cold air mass to enter the region, SW winds are expected tomorrow along with partly sunny skies. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s inland, lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 50s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Thursday – Sunday: Chilly, But Slightly Warmer Than Average

The trough moving into the area tomorrow will weaken by Thursday, although 850 mb temperatures will remain chilly, bringing chilly temperatures once again to the area, with highs expected to reach the upper 40s inland and the lower 50s across the rest of the area. By Friday, a very weak low pressure will move through the northern Northeast, with a weak ridge rebuilding into the East. This ridge is much weaker than the previous eastern ridges throughout November, and as a result, temperatures will only slightly warm up, reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area with increasing clouds. After partly to mostly cloudy skies in the evening, cloud cover will clear overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of the area except for NYC and parts of Long Island.

The coldest temperatures are expected on Saturday, when highs will be near or even slightly below average. With a weak trough moving into the region again, high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 40s across the area, with a few lower 50s possible in parts of the immediate NYC area. Chilly overnight lows are expected again with temperatures similar to or slightly warmer than those of Friday night. As a stronger ridge begins to build into the East on Sunday, temperatures will warm up again, reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area, with the warmest temperatures ending up in the immediate NYC area where widespread mid 50s are expected.

Next Week: Warmer, Stormy, Then Colder

On Sunday, a low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region, bringing some snow to that region as yet another ridge forms over the eastern US. With the cold front moving towards the area on Monday, mild temperatures are expected to continue, with widespread lower to potentially mid 50s likely again on Monday. With the front moving through the region, however, rain is expected to affect the area on Monday into Tuesday, although the exact timing of the rain is still uncertain. Despite the uncertainty with the timing of the rain, it is likely that a trough drops into the region behind this storm, bringing colder than average temperatures across the area for the first time in a while between Tuesday night through at least Thursday. If the latest modeled set up verifies, high temperatures may end up in the upper 30s to lower 40s range across most of the area, with the potential for widespread lows in the 20s. There is more uncertainty beyond Wednesday due to the time range, but temperatures appear to slightly moderate towards the end of the week while still remaining at least slightly colder than average. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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