Nov 24, 2011: Sunny, Dry, Warm Weekend

With yesterday’s storm out of the region, a weak trough moved into the region last night, and has been pushed out today by a strong ridge building in the central US. Temperatures ended up slightly above average as a result, peaking in the lower to mid 50s from NYC and further west, and the upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. With the ridge in place through Sunday, sunny to mostly sunny skies will continue with warming temperatures, reaching the 65 degree mark in NYC on Saturday, but the warmth will not persist beyond the weekend as a cold front approaches the region, bringing rain again for the first half of next week.

Friday – Sunday: Warming Up

Tomorrow will bring sunny skies for the area with the high pressure over the region, with light WSW winds expected. High temperatures will be warmer than those of today with the large central US ridge spreading east, bringing high temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 50s in Long Island/S CT, which is nearly 10-15 degrees above the average high temperature for this time of the year. Saturday will bring mostly sunny skies with even warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island/S CT and the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further west. The warmest temperatures are expected near NE NJ, where temperatures are expected to reach the 65 degree mark. With a cold front approaching on Sunday, mostly cloudy turning to cloudy skies are expected, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area.

Next Week: Uncertainty With Storm

The latest model guidance continues to have a hard time handling the storm for next week, and solutions are now even more different than they were yesterday; the GFS model brings the front through on Sunday night/Monday, the ECMWF pushes the main rain event until Thursday, the UKMET develops a cutoff low over the Great Lakes region, and the CMC brings a strong low pressure on Tuesday into Wednesday, although the CMC solution is most likely an outlier one. The cold front is expected to approach the region by Sunday night into Monday, bringing rain, but what happens afterwards regarding any development of a cutoff low, where that happens, and where is still uncertain. At this time, I am thinking that the system doesn’t stall for too long and remains more progressive, with rain likely between Sunday night and Tuesday night, although the exact timing is still uncertain, and it is possible that the rain ends by Monday night or it could last through Wednesday night. Stay tuned for more information on the storm next week.

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