Nov 23, 2011: Chilly Thanksgiving, Warmer Weekend

After last night’s heavy rain event, today brought mostly drier conditions with occasional showers lasting through the early afternoon hours. Rain totals ended up between 1.5 to 2.25 inches across most of the area, with the highest amounts focusing over NYC, southern Connecticut, and southeastern NY. High temperatures peaked in the morning hours in the mid 40s inland, lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area and southern CT, and the upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut, before dropping into the 40s across the rest of the area by the afternoon hours.

With the storm moving out, a brief trough will move into the region tonight into tomorrow, bringing temperatures into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the area tonight, with temperatures on Thanksgiving day reaching the lower to mid 50s with mostly sunny skies expected. A larger ridge will build in for the weekend with well above average temperatures, peaking in the mid 60s near NYC, but a larger storm will approach the region by Sunday and Monday, bringing yet another moderate to heavy rain potential for early next week.

Thanksgiving Weekend Outlook:

With a weak and short lasting trough moving in, seasonable temperatures are expected for tomorrow, peaking in the lower to mid 50s across the area with mostly sunny skies and west winds. A stronger high pressure moving into the region along with a strong, widespread ridge will result in high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 50s across the area on Friday with sunny skies, and parts of NE NJ and NYC may reach the lower 60s.

The warmest day will be on Saturday, when mostly sunny skies are expected along with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 60s across the area. The warmest temperatures will be near NE NJ, where temperatures may reach or even slightly pass the 65 degree mark. With a low pressure slowly approaching the region, Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures slightly cooler than those of Saturday, in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, getting close to 65 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Next Week: Stormy Start, Then Colder

A cold front will slowly approach the region on Sunday and Monday, bringing thunderstorms to parts of the central and southern US. As this front approaches the region, some models develop a cutoff low near the Southeast US, while others such as the GFS stall the front near the region, producing heavy rain for Monday and Tuesday. While there is still some uncertainty with the exact timing, the potential is there for heavy rain to fall during this time frame. At this time, I am thinking that the majority of the rain focuses on Monday into Tuesday, but the timing could end up anywhere from Sunday night to Wednesday due to the large model spread. Tomorrow’s update will discuss the outlook for this storm in more details.

Behind this storm, uncertainty with the timing and location of the low pressure by Wednesday are leading to more uncertainty with how the storm merges back into the main flow, but it does appear likely that a stronger cold air mass may drop into the region by the second half of next week. Although with the pattern failing to flip towards conditions supportive of sustained cold, any cold in this time frame will not last for more than a few days at once, colder temperatures are expected for the end of next week, and may potentially end up below average for parts of the region. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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