4:10 PM: Light Rain Ending
Although temperatures at the 850mb and 925mb are below freezing across most of the area, the precipitation is not heavy enough to result in snow, and as a result, light rain is falling across the area, potentially mixing with snowflakes towards interior Connecticut. In this type of an event, heavier precipitation is needed to bring the colder air aloft down to the surface to bring a better chance of snow; in southern NJ, where moderate rain is falling, Cape May and Atlantic City are seeing temperatures in the upper 30s, while in New York City, where light rain is falling, temperatures are in the mid 40s. If moderate precipitation was falling across the area right now, it would have been in the form of snow across a larger part of the area.
Looking at the latest radar posted above, the rain has ended west of NYC, and the western end of the rain is starting to move east in western Long Island/Connecticut. In LI/CT, light to moderate rain will continue to fall over the next 2-3 hours, occasionally mixing with snow showers towards interior Connecticut, before ending by at least 8 PM. Clearing skies will take place overnight with low temperatures dropping into the lower to mid 20s near NW NJ and Orange county in NY, mid 20s to lower 30s in the rest of NE NJ, Rockland/Westchester counties and southern CT, upper 20s to lower 30s in Long Island, and lower to mid 30s in NYC. Stay tuned for a brief update on the longer range forecast this evening, including the outlook for Thanksgiving.