Nov 17, 2011 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

– With clearing skies, colder temperatures will return tonight, dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area with a few mid 30s possible in the warmer parts of NYC.

– As a high pressure builds in, mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow with below average temperatures. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 40s inland and the mid 40s across the rest of the area. A few upper 40s are possible near or SW of NYC.

– With the high pressure sliding offshore, yet another ridge will build across the eastern US, although this ridge won’t last as long as previous ones have this month. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 50s across the area on Saturday with mostly sunny skies, and on Sunday, as a cold front approaches, partly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. A few mid 60s are possible near or SW of NYC.

– The cold front will be a dry one, bringing mostly cloudy skies for Sunday night and partly cloudy skies for Monday. Temperatures will cool down on Monday into the lower to upper 50s across the area, and again on Tuesday into the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area.

– Although there is more uncertainty for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, it is likely that a storm will affect parts of the region including the NYC area, around Wednesday. With a progressive pattern and a lack of significant phasing, it is unlikely that any storm in this time frame goes too far north of NYC, and a storm track near or south of NYC is favored at this time, likely bringing rain to the area, but with a trough in place during this time frame, the potential may be there for snow to fall in parts of the Northeast and New England if the location and the timing of the storm are supportive. More information will be posted on this potential storm with tomorrow night’s update.

Thanksgiving Outlook: With a high pressure returning, mostly to partly sunny skies are likely to return by Thursday. Although the exact temperatures for Thursday depend on Wednesday’s storm, chilly temperatures are likely to continue through Thursday, possibly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, but may end up slightly colder or warmer. For the rest of the weekend, with the high pressure over the region, mostly sunny skies are likely to continue with temperatures warming up again well into the 50s and later on into the 60s once again, over 10 degrees above average, as a stronger, longer lasting ridge builds into the region. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for Thanksgiving.

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