As a large ridge began to spread into the region from the west today, temperatures significantly warmed up across the region, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 70s across Long Island and southern Connecticut. Additional warmth will affect the region tomorrow, bringing temperatures into the mid 80s, before slightly cooling down this week. A more significant cool down is expected by the late week into next weekend, however, as the next rain event affects the region.
Tomorrow will be the warmest day of this warm spell. With 850 mb temperatures near 16-17 degrees celsius, sunny to mostly sunny skies, and a west/WNW wind expected, temperatures will pass the 80 degree mark across most of the area, reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Parts of the immediate NYC area may pass the 85 degree mark, which would be nearly 20 degrees above the average high temperature.
Brief Sunday – Friday Forecast:
The warmth will persist through Monday as the warmest temperatures shift further south. Unlike Sunday, when the warmer temperatures will focus from NYC into Boston, Monday will bring the warmest temperatures from Virginia to NYC. Temperatures will still remain well above average, however, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west once again, and the upper 70s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area with mostly to partly sunny skies expected.
By Wednesday, a low pressure from the south will approach. There is uncertainty with this system, as some models bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall while others show only occasional showers with light rain amounts. At this time, I am leaning towards the wetter scenario, with the potential for 1 inch of rain, potentially higher, between Wednesday night and Thursday night. Due to the rain, temperatures will cool down as well, reaching the lower 70s across most of the area on Wednesday and the mid 60s to lower 70s on Thursday. As a stronger low pressure develops near the Great Lakes by Friday into Saturday, a cold front will move through the region, bringing another round of rain around Friday and Friday night, and drier and cooler conditions are likely to return by next weekend, with high temperatures staying in the 60s across the area. Tomorrow and Monday night’s updates will discuss the outlook for next week into next weekend in more details.