Oct 7, 2011: Very Warm Weekend Ahead

With the NYC area once again on the edge of a trough over the Northeast, sunny skies continued today with chilly overnight temperatures and mild daytime highs. This morning’s temperatures once again dropped into the mid 30s in NW NJ and Orange county, and into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area except for NYC. High temperatures today were similar to those of yesterday, reaching the mid 60s to 70 degrees from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

A much warmer air mass to the west of the region will spread further east, bringing much warmer temperatures into the region, reaching 80 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area tomorrow. Sunday, however, will be the warmest day, when temperatures will reach the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, nearly 20 degrees above the average for this time of the year. The dry and warm conditions won’t last for long, however, as a surge of moisture will move up the coast, bringing widespread rain, potentially heavy, for the second half of next week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures into the region. The high pressure will remain stationary over the region, resulting sunny skies once again with a light WSW wind. 850 mb temperatures will rise to about 14 degrees celsius; in comparison, today’s 850 mb temperatures were near 8 degrees. As a result, much warmer temperatures are expected, reaching the upper 70s from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT. Parts of the immediate NYC area, especially in NE New Jersey, will reach the 80 degree mark.

Sunday – Tuesday: Warmth Continues

Sunday will be the warmest day across the region. Similar conditions to those of tomorrow are expected but with warmer temperatures aloft, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 16 degrees celsius. As a result, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT. Temperatures in parts of NE NJ may even exceed 85 degrees, which is nearly 20 degrees above the average high temperature for this time of the year.

Much warmer than average temperatures will continue through early next week as well, though temperatures will cool down from Sunday’s peak. With the high pressure weakening and drifting further north, high temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT. A colder air mass will move into the northern NE for Tuesday, which will slightly weaken the warm air mass, bringing colder temperatures into the area, peaking in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area.

Wednesday – Next Weekend: Heavy Rain Potential

The stretch of dry and sunny conditions will come to an end on Wednesday as attention turns to the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure is expected to develop near the eastern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall over Florida on Tuesday. The potential is there for this storm to become subtropical or tropical prior to landfall. Once it does so, the storm will move NNE over the eastern US, and is expected to end up near or east of the region on Thursday. With this low pressure system moving through the East Coast, a surge of moisture will move up the coast, bringing high precipitable water values. While there is still some uncertainty with the smaller details, the latest expectation is for widespread rain, potentially heavy at times, to affect the region between Wednesday night and Friday, with lighter rain expected for Friday and potentially through Saturday, bringing the potential for over 1 inch of rain. Along with the rain, colder temperatures are expected, dropping back into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area by Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for more information on the heavy rain potential for the second half of next week.

By the second half of the weekend, the rain is expected to clear the region. During the time that the storm affects the region in the late week, a low pressure will move towards the northern Great Lakes, with interaction expected between these two systems. The details of the interaction are still uncertain, but this interaction is likely to briefly bring in a colder air mass into the region for the weekend. This is not expected to be a strong and sustained cold spell at this time, however, and there are indications that it may be replaced by another surge of warmth for the week afterwards. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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