Updates as of 4 PM:
– Heavy Snow Warning (NW NJ, Orange County)
– Snow Warning (Rest of N NJ, SE NY, S CT)
– Light Snow Alert (NYC)
High Wind Watch will be issued by 6 PM.
5-Day Forecast page is updated for the area.
4:40 PM: Since last night’s update, the potential for a significant snowstorm continues across the region as the model guidance trended further west, now showing a solution similar to my scenario map from last night. Some of the models continue to trend warmer, such as the GFS and SREF mean, but these models may be slightly too warm. The 5-Day Forecast and Weather Alerts pages have been updated as of 4 PM, and changes to the forecast include adding a mention of heavy snow for the interior areas and parts of the immediate NYC area, with the potential for up to a foot of wet snow in Sussex/Orange counties, slightly increasing snow accumulations for the immediate NYC area, and adding a mention of heavy rain and strong winds for Long Island, where up to 2 inches of rain are expected with winds gusting up to 60 mph.
Stay tuned for more updates on this significant early season snowstorm, including another short update this evening at 7 PM including updated 5-Day Forecast and Weather Alerts pages, which will be followed by a storm discussion with final snow/scenario maps at 10-11 PM tonight. Storm updates will be posted throughout the day tomorrow on this storm.