Oct 27, 2011 Noon Update

3:45 PM: First Snowstorm Of The Winter Possible?

The model guidance trended significantly to the west last night with the weekend storm after I posted my update last night, and as the update mentioned that a further west scenario will lead to snow mixing with the rain north/west of NYC, the potential now exists for the first significant snowstorm of the winter across the region, including parts of the NYC area.

There is still some uncertainty as the change in the expectation is only recent, but if the latest expected scenario verifies, accumulating snow will fall to the north and west of NYC, with several inches of snow towards NW NJ and SE NY. I issued a Light Snow Alert for the interior parts of the area, but the alert is conservative at this time due to uncertainty, and will likely be upgraded to a Snow Warning (3 to 7 inches of snow) this evening if no major changes take place with the expected scenario.

Stay tuned for additional coverage of this change in the forecast later today:

4:00 PM: Updated 5-Day Forecast
7:00 PM: Preliminary winter outlook will be posted / Updated snow alerts
10:00 PM: Full length discussion on storm, including preliminary scenario and snow maps.

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