A low pressure system that has been quite difficult to predict finally reached the region today, bringing widespread rain. The model guidance did not handle the storm very well; four days ago, the storm was modeled to stay east of the region, and instead the storm is currently stalled over western Ohio. In addition to the low pressure uncertainty, rainfall amounts were lower than expected, ending up around 1/2 to 3/4 inch from NYC and further west, and generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Last night, I went with the lower end of the model guidance for the rain amounts, but even that was too high, as the heaviest rain only fell during the morning and did not last through the early-mid afternoon hours as first thought.
Next Week Brief Outlook
A weak area of low pressure is expected to approach the region on Monday, which will bring increased cloud cover on Sunday and slightly warmer temperatures on Monday, reaching the mid 60s in the immediate NYC area and the lower to mid 60s across the rest of the area. Scattered showers are expected with mostly cloudy skies, but no widespread moderate rain is expected. Behind this storm, cloud cover will slightly clear on Tuesday with temperatures similar to, if not slightly cooler than those of Monday, but a brief warm up is expected around the middle of next week, more likely towards Wednesday-Thursday though the timing is still a little uncertain. During this time frame, parts of the area may pass the 70 degree mark in the warmer case scenario, although well above average temperatures are not expected.
Longer Range: Behind a potential storm towards the ends of next week which may bring rain into the region, colder temperatures are likely to return, and the potential may be there for slightly below average temperatures towards the end of October, but the pattern we are in does not support sustained cold spells across the region, and this cold spell potential appears to be no exception to the pattern. Unless we see a pattern change, temperatures will likely end up close the average through early November, with occasional cool spells but with the coldest departures likely focusing to the west of the region. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.