Sept 7, 2011: Rain To End Tomorrow

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated tonight. The forecast will be updated on Thursday instead.

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As Lee’s remmants continued to affect the region, today was another cloudy and rainy day, but as Lee’s remnants moved into the Ohio Valley, the rain shifted to the west of the area, back into Pennsylvania and New York. There is uncertainty for the forecast tonight, however, as some models show another round of heavy rain, with an additional 1-2 inches from NYC and further west, while other models fail to show more than a tenth of an inch.

At this time, as shown on the radar to the left, the main axis of rain is stuck from SE Virginia through central Pennsylvania and into New York. The heaviest rain is expected to stay in that area, but as the warm front lifts north through NYC tonight, additional rain, locally moderate to heavy, will form and affect the area once again, and at least an additional 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain is expected to fall through Thursday morning across most of the area. Locally higher amounts are possible from NYC and further west, especially towards NW NJ and Orange county, NY, where amounts may locally reach 1 inch should the heavy rain bands shift slightly to the east.

Brief Week Outlook:

Mainly cloudy skies are expected once again tomorrow with scattered showers. Temperatures will warm up, reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west and in the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. An east wind is expected.

From Saturday through about Tuesday, as a high pressure moves into the region, mostly sunny skies are expected with seasonable temperatures, in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west with a few lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island/S CT. The warmest temperatures will be on Friday, when lower to mid 80s are expected in the immediate NYC area, upper 70s inland, and mid 70s to 80 degrees in Long Island/S CT.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, another cold front will reach the region, bringing the risk for more rain. If the latest model solutions are correct with Maria staying to the east of the region and with showing a strong cold front moving through, a significantly colder air mass may reach the area by the end of the week into next weekend, which could bring unseasonably chilly temperatures, but this is still in the longer range and there is uncertainty with the intensity of the cold air mass. Tomorrow’s update will discuss next week’s outlook in more details.

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