Sept 5, 2011: Cloudy, Rainy Week Ahead

A slow moving cold front began affecting the westernmost parts of the area today, bringing heavy rain to places such as Sussex/Warren counties in NJ and Orange county in NY. Accordingly, temperatures were the coldest further west, where high temperatures reached the lower to mid 70s in NW NJ/Orange county. In the immediate NYC area, where no rain fell today, temperatures were warmer, in the lower to mid 80s, and most of Long Island and southern Connecticut saw highs in the mid 70s.

This front has been very slow to move east, with the rain stalling in NW NJ during most of today, dumping 1-2 inches in NW NJ and Orange county, while the rain has yet to reach New York City. The front will shift east, bringing moderate to heavy rain in NYC late tonight through Tuesday, which will also bring much colder temperatures, struggling to reach the 70 degree mark in most of the area. As Lee’s remnants move into the Ohio Valley, however, the rain will shift back west into Pennsylvania, which will keep the area under mainly cloudy skies along with scattered showers and chilly temperatures for the rest of the week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

The cold front will move very slowly to the east, and rain is expected to begin falling in NYC after 12-2 AM. Moderate to locally heavy rain will fall in the late overnight hours from NYC and further west, with a steady light to occasionally moderate rain throughout the day on Tuesday, bringing the storm total by Tuesday night to 1/2 to 1.25 inch in the immediate NYC area, and 1.25 to 3.5 inches in NW NJ. Further east in Long Island/S CT, less rain will fall as the rain from the front will struggle to reach places east of NYC, and 1/4 to 1/2 inch should fall in Long Island/S CT, with locally higher amounts up to 3/4 inch expected closer to NYC.

The actual high temperatures tomorrow will be early in the overnight hours, as the cold front will cause temperatures to drop in the late overnight hours, from the lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures will remain steady in the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 60s to lower 70s in Long Island/S CT, which combined with cloudy skies and showers, will make tomorrow feel much more like fall.

Wednesday – Friday: Cloudy, Chilly, Wet

Lee’s remnants will slowly drift to the NNE during the day on Tuesday, reaching the Ohio Valley. This will cause the rain to shift back west on Tuesday night, bringing another round of light to moderate rain on Tuesday night, and the rain will return into Pennsylvania on Wednesday as the cold front, southeast of NYC, shifts back north as a warm front moving towards NYC. Wednesday will bring scattered showers with chilly temperatures once again, in the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further east with a few mid 70s possible near NYC and NE NJ. By Thursday, temperatures will warm up again, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area, and the showers and cloudy skies will end by Friday, with temperatures nearing the 80 degree mark and reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area throughout the weekend.

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