Sept 3, 2011: Flooding Potential Next Week

With the high pressure exiting the area and a warmer air mass slowly moving in, today brought more cloud cover into the area, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s to the lower 80s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. With a surge of warmth briefly moving in, tomorrow will be much warmer, potentially bringing the last 90 degree day of the year to parts of NE New Jersey, but as Tropical Storm Lee’s remnants move up the East Coast, heavy rain will affect places from NYC and further west on Monday night into Wednesday, potentially bringing a risk of flooding to places hit by Irene’s heavy rains.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy skies to the area along with a SSW wind. High temperatures will be warmer than those of today, reaching the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island/S CT due to a SSW wind. Temperatures could be slightly lower near the immediate coast and slightly higher closer to NYC. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible tomorrow afternoon, especially west of NYC, but the best risk of storms will stay to the west of the area, in Pennsylvania and New York.

Next Week: Cold Front, T.S. Lee Bring Heavy Rain Risk

The previous discussions over the last few days mentioned that a cold front will be moving through the region, bringing rain on Monday. Due to Tropical Storm Lee affecting this front, however, the front will slow down, bringing heavy rain into parts of the region. The rain will stay in Pennsylvania and New York from tomorrow until Monday evening, with only isolated storms in the area. From Monday night through Tuesday night, however, the rain will move through the area as Lee’s remnants move towards the region. With high precipitable water values, heavy rain is likely, especially west of NYC, where anywhere from 1.25 to as much as locally 4-5 inches of rain could fall during this time frame. Scattered showers will continue until at least Tuesday as Lee’s influence continues across the region, along with below average temperatures, peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area from Tuesday through Thursday. Stay tuned for more information on next week with tomorrow’s update.

Leave a Reply