With a cut off low remaining stationary over the Ohio Valley, today brought conditions similar to those of the last three days, with mostly cloudy skies and warm/humid conditions observed once again. High temperatures were slightly cooler than those of yesterday, peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut.
With the cold front moving through the area, Friday will bring drier conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out, but overall, Friday will be much drier than Thursday. As the storm from Canada, merged with the upper level low, continues to organize itself, another cold front will move towards the area on Friday, which will keep mild temperatures in place, with high temperatures peaking in the lower 70s inland and in the mid 70s across the rest of the area. A few upper 70s may be possible near NYC in the warmer case scenario.
Next Weekend: Cold Start To October
The combination of the Canadian storm and the upper level low will help pull in a strong trough from Canada. 850 mb temperatures are expected to be as low as -8 degrees celsius with this air mass when it enters the north central US. With the second front moving through the area on Friday night, temperatures will be cooler on Saturday, peaking in the lower to mid 60s inland and in the mid 60s acrosss the rest of the area. Meanwhile, the cold air mass will dig into the western parts of the region, and will slowly approach the area.
With the front not too far offshore and an upper level low expected over the region, the cold air mass will weaken as it reaches the area, with 850 mb temperatures expected to end up near zero degrees celsius across the area. When combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a northwest wind, this will produce unusually chilly temperatures. Saturday night will be the coldest night, with temperatures expected to drop into the 30s inland and into the lower 40s potentially as far as the immediate north/west suburbs of NYC. For Sunday, temperatures are expected to peak in the 50s across the area, likely in the lower to mid 50s inland and the mid to upper 50s in the rest of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the cold spell for this weekend.
Next Week: Warming Up
This cold spell will only be short lived. As the image above shows, warmth will push in from the west once this cold spell will end, bringing a surge of warmth into the region along with a high pressure providing the area with sunshine and dry conditions for next week. Uncertainty comes into the picture when another trough from Canada becomes involved, however, as some models push this trough straight into the region, keeping any warmth short lived, while other models keep the warmth locked over the region, bringing a significant surge of warmth. There is still time for this scenario to change, but at this time, I am expecting the trough to mostly affect the Northeast, with places from NYC and further west/south affected by this surge of warmth more directly. Temperatures should warm up into the 70s again by the middle of next week, with parts of the Mid Atlantic expected to reach the 80s. If the warmer case scenario verifies, temperatures into the lower 80s may get as far north as NYC, but this is highly uncertain and depends on the location of the trough. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.