Sept 23, 2011: Rain To Weaken Tonight

Note: A brief update was posted tonight, with the other pages not updated for tonight’s update. The 5-Day Forecast, Tropics and Weather Alerts pages will be updated this weekend, either tomorrow or on Sunday.

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A surge of tropical moisture moved up the East Coast today, bringing widespread heavy rain into the region, including the area from NYC and further west, where anywhere from 1/2 to nearly 2 inches of rain fell. In the eastern parts of the area, however, less rain fell as the storm ended up further west than expected, with only 1/4 to 1 inch of rain in Long Island and most of southern Connecticut. Due to the rain, temperatures peaked in the lower 70s inland, mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

With the current round of rain moving out of the area by 12-2 AM tonight, a high pressure is expected to briefly enter the region, which will bring mostly cloudy skies into the area for the weekend with above average temperatures and the risk of an isolated shower. As the cut off low drifts back east next week, rain will return into the area for early-mid next week before the storm finally exits the region late next week.

Weekend Outlook

As the rain moves out of the region tonight, cloud cover will clear for Saturday, with mostly to potentially partly cloudy skies expected along with isolated showers. With the clearing of the cloud cover, temperatures will warm up, reaching the mid to upper 70s across the area. Should the weekend bring partly sunny skies, temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s in parts of NE NJ, which is warmer than the average for this time of the year. Similar conditions are expected for Sunday, but with slightly more cloud cover and a more widespread shower risk.

Next Week: Rain Returns, Ends By Thursday

The upper level low will remain stationary over the western Ohio Valley through Monday, keeping most of the rain to the west of the NYC area while bringing conditions similar to those of the weekend. By Tuesday, however, the upper level low will begin to drift to the east, which will bring mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with occasional showers from Tuesday through Wednesday, potentially including Thursday. Temperatures will gradually cool down, into the mid 70s across most of the area by Wednesday.

By the end of next week into next weekend, the storm is finally expected to move out of the region as it merges back into the main flow. Meanwhile, a stronger storm from Canda is expected to move further south than the previous storms in central Canada, and most of the latest models are showing a strong cold air mass pushing south from Canada into the NE US, in a position favorable for more sustained chilly temperatures for the start of October. There is still uncertainty with the longer range, but the potential for colder than average temperatures for next weekend will be watched. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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