Sept 18, 2011: Rain Returns On Tuesday

As a coastal low near southern Virginia moved out to sea last night and early today, cloud cover cleared across the NYC area as a high pressure in the northern Northeast began to spread towards the area. Partly sunny skies were observed today, with high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 60s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 60s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut.

The high pressure will remain over the area tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures expected. Meanwhile, cloudy skies will return by Tuesday as a warm front approaches, bringing scattered showers. Behind this front, temperatures will warm up back into the lower to upper 70s across the area, and with a cold front slowly approaching from the west, wet weather will continue throughThursday and Friday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

The cold air mass that has been over the region for the last few days is slowly weakening, and tomorrow, temperatures aloft will begin to warm up as well, reaching about 5-7 degrees celsius. With the high pressure spreading over the area, mainly sunny skies are expected as well. These factors will allow temperatures to warm up slightly for Monday, reaching the upper 60s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 60s to 70 degrees in most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. An east wind is expected early in the day, switching direction to SE by the late afternoon/evening.

Tuesday – Friday: Warming Up, Rain Returns

An approaching warm front will push the high pressure out of the area, with increasing cloud cover expected for Monday night. By Tuesday, cloudy skies are expected with showers and a south wind. Mostly light rainfall amounts are expected, generally up to 1/4 inch, with the most rain falling to the west of NYC. Due to the rain and cloud cover, temperatures will stay chilly, peaking in the mid to potentially upper 60s inland, upper 60s to potentially lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 60s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. There is some uncertainty with the temperatures, and less rain or more breaks in the cloud cover could result in warmer temperatures than those mentioned above.

Once the rain ends on Tuesday night, mostly cloudy skies will continue through Wednesday with the risk of isolated showers, but temperatures will warm up, reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island/S CT. A slow moving cold front will reach the region around Thursday night/Friday, and as the front approaches, occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Wednesday night through Thursday night, potentially including Friday if the front slows down from the current expectation. There is some uncertainty with the rain totals, but at this time, it appears that at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain could fall as a result of this cold front. By the weekend, as the storm exits, partly sunny skies will return with temperatures cooling down into the lower to mid 70s across most of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the late week rain storm.

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