Sept 17, 2011: Warmer Temps Slowly Return

As a coastal low pressure developed near the Carolinas today, widespread cloud cover was observed across the region, including the NYC area, as the high pressure ended up further north than first expected, over northern New England. High temperatures were colder than expected as a result of the increased cloud cover, only peaking in the lower 60s inland, lower to mid 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

As this coastal low continues to organize itself while moving to the NE, the rain will stay south and east of the NYC area, but mainly cloudy skies will continue tonight before clearing throughout the day on Sunday. Mostly sunny skies will return for Monday as the high pressure spreads back south into the area, but this will be short lived, as an approaching cold front will push the high pressure out and bring mostly cloudy skies and showers to the area for the mid-late week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another chilly day, but with the coastal low moving out of the region and the high pressure slowly starting to spread from northern New England further south into the area, cloud cover will gradually clear throughout the day. Despite 850 mb temperatures similar to where they were today, at about 4 degrees celsius, the additional sunshine should result in warmer temperatures, peaking in the mid to potentially upper 60s inland, upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut along with a NE wind. If there is enough sunshine, places near and south/SW of NYC may reach 70 degrees.

Next Week: Warming Up, Rain Returns

The high pressure will spread back into the area on Monday, which will result in sunny to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will warm up as well, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. By Tuesday, however, a cold front will approach the region, bringing temperatures into the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west along with mostly cloudy skies and a scattered shower risk. This front will fail to bring colder temperatures into the region, and instead, temperatures will warm up once again on Wednesday, reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west.

Meanwhile, a low pressure will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, with its cold front moving through the central US. The cold front will approach the region on Thursday, bringing similar temperatures to those of Wednesday along with additional showers and thunderstorms, but the front will struggle to move through the region, and a cut off low is likely to form to the west of the region. There is some uncertainty with the cut off low potential, but should this scenario verify, mainly dry conditions are possible for Friday into next weekend with the potential for some showers, and even though temperatures are expected to slightly cool down, likely somewhere around the lower 70s, the true cold will fail to make it into the region. Stay tuned for more information regarding the outlook for the end of next week into next weekend.

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