Sept 16, 2011: Dry And Chilly Weekend

As a cold front moved through the area yesterday, a significantly colder air mass moved into the region, bringing 850 mb temperatures as low as 2-4 degrees celsius into the area. This resulted in colder than average temperatures, with the overnight lows reaching the lower 40s inland (NW NJ/SE NY), mid to upper 40s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, upper 40s in southern CT, upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island, and lower 50s in NYC. High temperatures were colder than average as well, peaking in the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 60s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut.

With the cold air mass staying over the area, temperatures similar to those of today, if not slightly warmer, are expected for tonight into Saturday. Temperatures aloft will begin to warm up by Sunday, with temperatures gradually starting to warm up, but a high pressure in place will prevent rain from falling until Tuesday, when a cold front should approach the region, bringing scattered showers. With the high pressure moving out of the region, a low pressure will affect the region, bringing rain for Wednesday and Thursday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

With 850 mb temperatures expected to stay around where they were today, around 4 degrees celsius, temperatures are expected to be similar to those of today, but only slightly warmer. High temperatures will peak in the mid 60s in the western parts of the area, and in the mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, Long Island, and southern Connecticut along with a ENE wind.

Sunday – Next Week: Warming Up, Rain Returns

The high pressure will stay over the region for Sunday and Monday as a low pressure forms near the Carolinas and moves offshore, which will keep dry conditions with mostly to partly sunny skies in place for both days. 850 mb temperatures will slowly begin to warm up, and surface temperatures will warm up as well, with high temperatures peaking in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area on Sunday, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area on Monday.

By Tuesday, however, rain will return into the region and potentially the NYC area as well. A cold front will approach the region, with scattered showers affecting especially the western half of the region, towards Pennsylvania, but some showers are possible in the NYC area as well. Temperatures will continue to warm up, reaching the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west.

There is increasing uncertainty for Wednesday and beyond with each model showing a different solution, but when looking at the overall picture, rain is expected to fall in the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure system affects the region, with temperatures above average, peaking in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. After Thursday, there are two main solutions shown at this time; one possibility is that the front clears the region on Friday with a colder air mass moving in, bringing high temperatures back into the 60s. The other possible scenario would keep the front to the west of the area as a cut off low pressure develops, keeping rain in the forecast through Friday and potentially the weekend. Saturday night’s update will discuss which scenario is more likely to verify in more details.

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