Sept 14, 2011: October-Like Weekend Ahead

The surge of warmth brought above average temperatures across the area for the last few days, but with a cold front approaching, this warmth will end tomorrow with a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through during the afternoon hours across the area. Behind this front, temperatures will quickly drop along with gusty winds, gusting up to 30 mph across most of the area on Thursday evening, but the main story will be the temperatures, which will drop into the 40s for lows and the 60s for highs on Friday and the weekend, around the average temperatures during October. A stalled high pressure will keep these conditions in place, with chilly and dry conditions lasting into next week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

With the cold front moving through, tomorrow will bring colder temperatures. Combined with colder temperatures aloft, rain, and cloudy cover, temperatures will bring high temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 70s across Long Island and southern Connecticut. The rain is expected to move into the area around 11 AM-2 PM from NYC and further west, and between 2 PM-6 PM east of NYC. The rain will end by the evening hours across the area, with at 0.1 to 1/4 inch of rain east of NYC and 1/4 to 1/2 inch from NYC and further west.
Due to the timing of the rain, high temperatures tomorrow will peak earlier than usual, around 12 PM. Once the rain moves in, temperatures will drop slightly, and once the rain ends as the cold front moves through, temperatures will quickly drop in the late afternoon with gusty NW winds, gusting up to 30 mph across the area. By 8 PM, the majority of the area except for Long Island will have dropped below the 60 degree mark. There is some uncertainty with tomorrow’s high temperatures, as the temperatures depend on when the rain moves into the area. Should the rain move in later than expected, temperatures may reach 80 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. In addition, it is possible that temperatures in NW NJ/SE NY could be colder than shown on the graphic above.

Friday – Next Week: Chilly, Dry

Behind the cold front, a much colder air mass will move into the region. Cloud cover will clear on Thursday night as winds steadily decrease throughout the overnight hours. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s in NW NJ/SE NY, mid to upper 40s in NE NJ/southern CT/Long Island, and the lower 50s in NYC. Friday will bring colder high temperatures, peaking in the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area. Temperatures will steadily warm up through the weekend into early next week as a high pressure will remain stuck over the area, keeping dry conditions and mostly to partly sunny skies in place. By the middle of next week, temperatures will reach the lower to upper 70s across the area, and rain chances will return by mid-late next week.

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