Sept 12, 2011: Warm Start, Chilly Ending To Week

Today brought much nicer conditions to the area, with mostly to partly sunny skies observed along with warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 70s to 80 degrees across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. Temperatures will continue to warm up tomorrow and on Wednesday, reaching the mid 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area, but a strong cold front will bring an end to the warmth, bringing October-like temperatures to end the week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tuesday will bring partly sunny skies to the area once again, but with warmer temperatures aloft, temperatures at the surface will continue to warm up. A SW wind is expected once again, with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s across the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Wednesday – Sunday: Cooling Down

As a cold front approaches the area from the west, temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday as a SW wind continues, with temperatures similar to those of Tuesday. This cold front will be mainly dry, however, and other than scattered thunderstorms, no widespread heavy rain is expected to affect the area. The front will stall on Wednesday night to the west of the area, however, as another low pressure develops in southern Canada. This low pressure will be the one to push the cold front through the area early on Thursday. This frontal passage will be mostly dry as well, with isolated thunderstorms possible in the first half of Thursday. As a much colder air mass starts to move into the region, temperatures will remain mostly steady on Thursday, peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area.

By Friday, as the strong trough moves into the region, much colder temperatures will affect the Northeast, including the area. Thursday and Friday nights will bring the coldest temperatures, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s in the immediate north/west suburbs of NYC and southern CT, mid 40s to lower 50s in Long Island, and the lower to mid 50s in NYC. With a strong high pressure moving over the region, mostly clear skies are expected as well. On Friday and Saturday, mostly sunny skies will continue, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s across most of the area. By Sunday, as the cold air mass weakens, temperatures will rise as well, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area.

Longer Range: There is increasing uncertainty after Sunday, however, as most models develop a low pressure system which affects the southern Mid Atlantic with rain, but the question is where does the rain go from there, as some models bring the storm into the area, while others keep the storm to the east of the area, which would trap what’s left of the cold air mass over the region and keeping dry and chilly temperatures in place. Tomorrow night’s update will discuss the outlook for early next week in more details.

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