The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated tonight.
A low pressure affected the region today, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms into the region, including the area. While the rainfall amounts were close to the forecast, with 1/2 to 1 inch, locally 1.5 inch acrosss most of the area except for NW NJ/Orange County and Long Island, the timing for the storm was off, as the storm moved in and out much earlier than expected. Rain first moved in around 12-2 PM, when it was expected to start falling in the late afternoon. The main part of the storm affected the area in the middle of the afternoon, and instead of heavy rain starting after midnight, the radar is drying up and only isolated activity is expected for tonight, with up to 1/4 inch at most.
A colder air mass will move in behind the cold front, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area on Thursday with lows in the 50s across most of the area except for NYC. Temperatures will slowly warm up ahead of another low pressure which will affect the area on Sunday, bringing another risk of heavy rainfall.
Partly cloudy skies are expected across the area tomorrow with a west/WNW wind. The cold front itself will move through tomorrow, but little to no rain is expected with the frontal passage. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, with upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area.
Thursday – Saturday: Colder, Then Warming Up
Behind the cold front, a colder air mass will move into the region, with 850 mb temperatures dropping as low as 8-10 degrees celsius, the coldest they have been since June. As a result, high temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area with lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. Thursday night will be quite chilly, with low temperatures dropping into the lower to mid 50s inland, mid to upper 50s in southern Connecticut, upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and NE NJ, and in the lower to mid 60s in NYC. Temperatures will slowly warm up throughout Friday and Saturday, reaching the lower to upper 80s across the area on Saturday.
Sunday: Heavy Rain Potential Returns
With the high pressure late this week moving out of the region, another low pressure will move into the region, potentially near the area, bringing another risk of heavy rainfall. There is still some uncertainty, but there is a growing model consensus that the low pressure will track somewhere over the Northeast or northern Mid Atlantic, potentially over the area. Such a scenario, combined with high precipitable water values, could bring locally heavy rainfall. There is still uncertainty with the exact timing and rainfall amounts, however. Stay tuned for more information on Sunday’s storm.