Aug 7, 2011: More Storms Through Wednesday

After last night’s update, more rain kept affecting the area, ending by the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts ended up between 1/3 and 1.5 inch in northern NJ/NYC, 1-2 inches in SE NY and southern Connecticut, and up to 1/3 inch in Long Island. These amounts were close to the forecast last night, except for southern Connecticut which saw more rain than expected. After the rain ended, the cloud cover partially cleared and temperatures surged into the mid 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 80s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut.

There are some storms still currently affecting the area, especially in Suffolk county and in Queens. The storms will move offshore, and mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. More scattered storms are expected tomorrow, with a higher risk of storms on Tuesday evening and night. Drier conditions will return for the late week, but another storm will then affect the region around Saturday night/Sunday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring similar temperatures into the area, reaching the mid to upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and with a NW wind, high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. The best risk of storms tomorrow is to the north of the area, but scattered storms could affect the northern half of the area tomorrow evening, with strong to locally severe storms possible.

Tuesday And Beyond: Another Storm, Then Drier And Colder

Another cold front will move towards the region on Tuesday night, bringing another risk of heavy rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday will slightly cool down, reaching the lower to mid 80s across most of the area except for the immediate NYC area, where temperatures will be in the mid 80s. A negatively tilted low pressure in Canada will bring a cold front through the region, and high precipitable water values are expected once again along with decent bulk shear values, potentially as high as 50 knots according to the NAM model. As a result, widespread storms are expected to affect the area on Tuesday night, especially from NYC and further north/west, and could produce locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Stay tuned for more information on Tuesday night’s storm.

The low pressure will then move east of the area on Wednesday, bringing drier conditions and a WSW wind, though an isolated shower or storm is still possible. Temperatures will slightly warm up, reaching the mid 80s inland, mid to potentially upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. Behind the cold front, a significantly colder air mass will move into the region, and 850 mb temperatures may reach 10c for the first time since the start of this summer. Some models, such as the GFS, may be overdoing the cold air, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, but temperatures will cool down for Thursday and Friday, and at this time, I am expecting high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, with low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of the area except for NYC, where lows are expected to be in the mid 60s. More information will be posted on this cool down as information becomes clearer.

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