Aug 31, 2011: Nice Pattern Continues

As the clean up from Hurricane Irene continues, a high pressure over the region brought yet another mostly sunny and seasonable day, with high temperatures in the lower 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. The set up bringing these seasonable temperatures will continue through Saturday, when an approaching cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms for the weekend through Monday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

The high pressure over the region will stay in its place tomorrow as a cut off low develops in the western Atlantic, blocking a building heat surge in the Great Lakes from reaching the region, keeping seasonable temperatures in place. Partly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 70s to 80 degrees in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Friday And Weekend: Dry Conditions Turn Wet

The cut off low previously mentioned will remain stationary through Friday, which will help suppress the heat surge in the Midwest, which will bring temperatures into the upper 90s as far north as Michigan. With a SE wind, tomorrow will bring slightly colder temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 70s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and S CT.

As the cut off low pressure moves away on Saturday, what’s left of the heat surge will reach the Northeast, with 850 mb temperatures reaching nearly 20 degrees celsius in the area. The warm temperatures aloft will not reflect the conditions in the surface, however, as cloud cover and precipitation will help keep temperatures lower than what they would typically be with 850 mb temperatures near 20c, peaking in the lower to mid 80s inland, mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island/S CT due to a SW/SSW wind. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, however widespread heavy rain is not a risk with these storms.

The front approaching the region is driven by a storm well to the north of the region, and as a result, the front will be weak when reaching the region, and another low pressure will move through southern Canada on Sunday and Monday, pushing the front through the Northeast US. This low pressure will bring more widespread thunderstorms for Sunday and potentially Monday as well, with temperatures similar to, if not slightly cooler than those of Saturday.

Next Week: Chilly Or Wet?

Uncertainty returns into the forecast for next week once the front moves to the east of the area. This cold front is expected to keep Katia east of the region, only posing a risk to places such as Bermuda and Newfoundland. Attention then turns into the Gulf of Mexico, however, as tropical invest 93L, currently in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to become a tropical storm this weekend, which would be named Lee. There is uncertainty with what this storm does, though at this time, the majority of the models keep 93L stuck in the Gulf of Mexico while bringing a strong cool down into the area, with highs only in the lower to mid 70s in NYC. The GFS model, however, shows a different scenario where 93L moves up the East Coast, bringing another heavy rain risk. At this time, the GFS is by itself with this solution, but this possibility will be watched. Stay tuned for more information for next week with tomorrow’s update.

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