9:05 PM: Throughout this afternoon and evening, steady light to moderate rain fell especially from NYC and further west, staying generally under 1/4 inch. More rain is currently approaching the area, as there is an area of moderate rain in southeast NY moving towards the area. This area of rain is moving SE, and will affect northern NJ and the rest of SE NY over the next 2 hours. This area of rain will help enhance the rain totals, with a total of at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch expected from NYC and further west.
Stay tuned for tonight’s update, which will be posted within the next hour.
2:15 PM: It no longer appears that the low pressure will produce the heavy rain risk originally mentioned yesterday. All of the models trended significantly drier overnight, and either showed light rain at most, or focused the heaviest rain to the south or north of the area. Despite the changed forecast, rain is still expected to fall today, especially from NYC and further west. There is an area of rain approaching from the west, and an area of heavy rain near the NY/Canada border is moving southeast, apparently towards the area as well.
Occasional showers along with some thunder will develop over the next 1-2 hours from NYC and further west. These showers will be mostly light, but a locally moderate shower is possible. These occasional showers will continue until at least 10 PM-12 AM, when the low pressure will begin to move offshore along with the rain. By the time that the rain ends, at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected from NYC and further west, and up to 1/4 inch in Long Island and southern Connecticut.
Additional updates may be posted later this afternoon, otherwise the next full update will be posted this evening, discussing the next rainstorm for Sunday and Monday.