Aug 14, 2011 Storm Updates

NOTE: Another update may be posted later this morning. If there are no significant changes, however, this will be the last update until Monday, August 22.

In addition to this update, the last update to the 5-Day Forecast until August 22 will be posted by 11 AM.


12:55 PM: Plenty Of Rain Approaching NYC

Since this morning, additional rain continued to fall across the area, and rain totals so far include 3.54″ in JFK, 4.10″ in Central Park, 5.09″ in La Guardia airport, and as much as 6.80″ in JFK airport. There is plenty of rain to come, however, and it is possible that the amounts listed above could be doubled, if not more, by the time that the storm ends on Tuesday.

As the latest radar shows to the left, there is widespread moderate to heavy rain developing in southeastern Pennsylvania and moving slowly towards the area. While there is a brief break in the heavy rain in the immediate NYC area at this time, heavy rain will return within the next 1-2 hours and continue through the rest of the afternoon hours, bringing an additional 1 to as much as 3-4 inches of rain through this evening.

Forecast Update: After the late afternoon, the heavy rain should become less widespread as the peak of the storm should be during the day today. Occasional heavy rain will continue in the central and eastern parts of the area, however, and will continue through Monday afternoon/night before becoming more isolated and lighter. As a result, I slightly increased the forecast rain totals to 3 to 7 inches in northern NJ, 2 to 5 inches in SE NY, 5 to 10 inches in NYC/western Long Island, and 2 to 6 inches in eastern Long Island/S CT. Amounts could be locally lower or higher, and it is possible that a few parts of NYC could see as much as a foot of rain by the time that the storm ends.


10:30 AM: Heavy Rain Continues

While heavy rain was expected for last night and today, there was much more rain than expected last night as a heavy rain band stalled over the immediate NYC area through the overnight hours. The latest radar estimates show that over 1.5 inch of rain fell so far from central Long Island into NYC and northern NJ, with amounts as high as 4-5 inches of rain just during the overnight hours in Staten Island and parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Nassau county. SE NY and southern CT saw anywhere from 1/3 inch to 1 inch.

Looking at the latest radar, moderate to heavy rain is still affecting the immediate NYC area including Long Island and southern Connecticut. The rain is slow moving and does not seem to be weakening, though a break in the rain is possible for NE NJ/NYC in about an hour as a dry spot on the radar in central NJ moves towards these areas. Occasional moderate to heavy rain is expected to continue today, with the models and short range models in agreement of additional heavy rain amounts through this evening, and an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected in the immediate NYC area, Long Island and southern Connecticut today with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches possible. The western parts of the area (NW NJ/Orange county) should see lighter rain today, but locally heavy rain is still possible.

Updated Forecast: Additional rain is expected to continue through tonight and Monday, but lighter amounts are expected as the coastal low pressure develops, which will keep the heavier rain from NYC and further north/east. Occasional moderate rain will continue through Monday night with lighter rain into Tuesday. By the time that the storm ends, at least 3 to 6 inches of rain are possible in northern NJ, 2 to 4 inches in SE NY, 4 to 8 inches in NYC/western Long Island, and 2 to 5 inches in eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut. The heavier rainfall will not cover the entire area, and locally lower or higher amounts are possible. If the forecast additional rain amounts verify, amounts could end up as high as 8-10 inches locally.

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