July 5, 2011 Brief Update

The 5-Day Forecast page was updated today for the immediate NYC area and the interior areas. The forecast for Long Island and southern Connecticut will be completed and posted by tomorrow morning.

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Wednesday And Thursday: Heat Continues

A weak low pressure moving through the Northeast will help keep the heat in place through tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow will be the hottest day, with a warm southwest wind bringing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area with a few mid 90s in the immediate NYC area. Long Island will be the coolest spot, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s further south/east to the upper 80s further north/west and closer to NYC.

A cold front will move through the region, but unlike yesterday’s expectation, the cold front is now expected to be mostly dry when it reaches the area. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, some of them producing locally heavy rainfall, but they will not be as widespread or as heavy as Sunday’s storms. As a result, Thursday’s temperatures were raised with less cloud cover in the forecast, with temperatures now expected to end up similar to those of Wednesday, if not slightly cooler.

Friday And Beyond: Slightly Cooler, Then Warm Again

Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will move into the region for Friday and Saturday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area for both days with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Friday especially south and east of NYC.

For Sunday through Tuesday, the models continue to show heat spreading into the region, but vary with the intensity and duration of the heat. As I mentioned in my post last night, a more likely scenario based on this summer’s trend and pattern is one where the area slightly warms up for 2-3 days around early next week, likely somewhere in the upper 80s-mid 90s range, followed by a cold front with a cooler air mass briefly returning behind it. This is still in the longer range and could change, but at this time, this scenario is more likely than a prolonged heat wave with temperatures surging into the upper 90s. More information will be posted on this time frame as details become clearer.

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