July 27, 2011: Humidity Returns Friday

As a slightly cooler air mass moved into the region, today brought slightly cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. These temperatures are near the average for this time of the year, but as a warmer air mass moves in, will be the coolest temperatures until the middle of next week as another heat wave affects the area starting tommorrow.

Tomorrow and Friday: Warm, Humid, Stormy

A warmer air mass will start to move into the area tomorrow. As a result, temperatures will warm up, reaching the mid to upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and mostly in the mid 80s further east due to a south wind.

There is the potential for a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) to move into the area tomorrow night. Forecasting MCS type events can be very difficult, but the potential is there for one to affect the region, and if one does reach the area, it would be capable of bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. More information on this will be posted tomorrow.

Afterwards, Friday will bring warmer temperatures along with more humidity, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west, with the heat index reaching the upper 90s. The potential is there for strong thunderstorms to affect the area in the evening and overnight hours. Stay tuned for more information on the potential strong storms for Friday.
Weekend – Next Week: Warmth Continues

The storms on Friday night will fail to end the warmth. Temperatures on Saturday will only get warmer, reaching the lower to potentially mid 90s from NYC and further west. The main improvement from Friday is that the humidity will be lower. Temperatures will slightly cool down on Sunday but will remain warm.
There is some slight uncertainty for early next week, as some models suggest that a strong back door cold front moves through and drops temperatures into the mid 80s. At this time, I’m thinking that some models may be showing the back door cold front a little too strong, and I expect temperatures to cool down into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area and mid 80s across the rest of the area. By mid-late next week, another cold front approaches the region, which will likely bring slightly warmer temperatures again ahead of another potential risk of thunderstorms. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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