July 26, 2011 Noon: Few Storms Approaching


8:45 PM:
The storm in New York City has intensified, and is currently a strong thunderstorm covering NW Brooklyn and Queens. This storm will produce heavy rain and gusty winds as it continues to move ESE, affecting the rest of Brooklyn and Queens, later on reaching Long Beach and southern Nassau county.

8:25 PM: The storms in southeastern New York earlier this afternoon ended up going through northern Westchester county into SW Connecticut. While these storms are no longer present, there are four storms cells over northern New Jersey, all of them moving towards the same direction in a line, targeting the same area from Sussex to West Passaic to northern Bergen with heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours. These storms are not severe, but there is a strong cell near Franklin, NJ, which is expected to follow the path of the other storms as well. There is also an area of heavy rain near Patterson which will move ESE, towards Manhattan, within the next 1/2 hour.

Most of the area is dry, but there are some more storms in SW Connecticut. There are two small yet heavy thunderstorms near Danbury, CT, and there is a large heavy cell just north of Bridgeport, CT, moving ESE and offshore into the Long Island Sound.

3:30 PM: Yesterday’s update mentioned the potential for isolated activity today north of NYC, with most of the storms staying well north of NYC. With a low pressure moving through northern New York, widespread strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in New York and are moving southeast, with a particular area of severe storms in east central New York intensifying as it is moving towards western Massachusetts/NW Connecticut. Meanwhile, a few strong thunderstorms in formed northeastern Pennsylvania, which are currently moving towards the western half of the area.

Most of the activity is to the north of the area, but two storms are approaching the northwestern parts of the area. The first storm is approaching Monticello, NY, which will move into NW Orange county in the next 3/4 hour, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The second storm is near Scranton, PA, and is moving towards Sussex county, NJ. This storm is weaker than the storms further north, and is expected to begin weakening by the time that it reaches Sussex county.

The parameters in the area are supportive of severe weather, with decent lift index/CAPE values. The best lapse rates, however, are to the north of the area, and there is nothing to spark widespread storm development in the area. As a result, the best risk of strong thunderstorms this afternoon will be in interior SE NY, focusing over Orange/Rockland/Putnam counties in NY. The rest of the area can expect to see partly to mostly cloudy skies with dry conditions. If necessary, storm updates will be posted, otherwise the next update will be posted tonight.

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