July 25, 2011: Slowly Warming Up

Since the last update this afternoon, the squall line in northeastern Pennsylvania weakened and eventually collapsed before reaching the immediate NYC area as it moved into a stable air mass. This ended tonight’s activity, and dry conditions will continue through the overnight hours except for some isolated showers before midnight.
Behind today’s storms, warmer temperatures will return into the area, with 90s making an appearance in parts of the immediate NYC area tomorrow. Temperatures are mostly expected to stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s from tomorrow through next weekend, but as a brief surge of heat reaches the region on Friday, hotter temperatures with more humidity are expected, along with a risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Tomorrow’s Outlook:

With tonight’s cold front clearing the area, tomorrow will bring partly cloudy skies with a west wind. High temperatures will be warmer than those of today, reaching the upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon/evening hours north of NYC, but most of tomorrow’s storms will stay well to the north of the area.
Wednesday – Thursday: Warmth Continues

Wednesday and Thursday are both expected to bring similar conditions. The main difference is that Wednesday will be slightly cooler with a NW wind, and Thursday will bring more cloud cover with a south wind. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. Thursday will be warmer from NYC and further west, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, but mid 80s are expected again in Long Island/S CT, with colder temperatures near the southern coastal areas.
Friday And Weekend: Stormy, Then Dry And Warm

A brief surge of heat will reach the region on Friday, and the area is expected to be in the northern edge of this surge of heat. The intensity of the heat won’t be as strong as what we saw at the end of last week, but will still be enough to bring temperatures from NYC and further west into the lower to mid 90s. Humid conditions are expected as well, which could bring the heat index to the upper 90s-100 degrees. With the area near the northern end of the heat, thunderstorms are likely to affect the northern Mid Atlantic, including the area, and the southern Northeast. Modeled parameters are supportive, and the potential is there for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms on Friday. Stay tuned for more information on Friday’s potential storms.
After Friday, the storms will exit the area, but the warmth will stick around. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area next weekend. Beyond next weekend, there is more uncertainty given the time range, but at this time, it appears that we may see temperatures warm up early next week ahead of another cold front. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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