July 11, 2011: Hot And Humid Tomorrow

As a warm air mass began to spread into the region, today brought warmer temperatures into the area, with partly sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower to mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 80s to lower 90s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. The worst of the heat will take place tomorrow, when temperatures may reach the upper 90s in parts of NE NJ with the heat index reaching the lower 100s due to humid conditions, but behind tomorrow’s cold front, pleasant weather conditions will return, with sunny skies lasting from Wednesday through next Monday along with seasonable temperatures.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly sunny skies to the area with a WSW wind turning WNW and 850 mb temperatures near 18-20 degrees celsius. The factors above support temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s across northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC, and if mostly sunny skies continue through the afternoon and evening hours with no storms, temperatures may even reach the upper 90s in parts of NE NJ. With the wind direction coming mostly from the west, little sea breeze is expected in Long Island and southern Connecticut, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut except for the immediate coast.

The cold front will move through tomorrow in the evening hours, but at this time, it appears that a relatively dry frontal passage is the more likely scenario. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon hours, and any storm that develops may become strong or potentially severe, but the severe weather risk for tomorrow is low.

Wednesday And Beyond: Sunny, Dry, Seasonably Mild

Behind tomorrow’s cold front, a stretch of pleasant weather will begin as a high pressure sticks around the region through the late week and the weekend, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s from Thursday through Sunday, with the exception of Wednesday which should bring temperatures into the mid to upper 80s across most of the area with a few lower 90s possible in the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows will also be chilly, dropping into the 50s north and west of NYC and in southern Connecticut.

By early next week, unsettled weather begins to return into the region. Another potentially massive ridge in the central US once again appears to fail to bring a major heat wave in the area, with the worst of the heat staying to the west of the region, but temperatures will begin to warm up as the high pressure exits the region, bringing more of a SSW wind, and some of the heat in the central US spreads into the region, potentially bringing temperatures into the 90s for parts of the area around early-mid next week, which is also when the next chance of rain will be for the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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