July 10, 2011: Hot Start, Sunny Ending To Week

With a high pressure near the region, today brough mostly sunny skies to the area once again, with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s inland, upper 80s in most of the immediate NYC area, and the lower 80s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. With a warm air mass moving into the region, temperatures will warm up throughout the next two days, with Tuesday expected to bring a heat index near 100 degrees in the immediate NYC area along with a risk of strong thunderstorms, but behind the cold front, a high pressure will move into the region, bringing a four day stretch of sunny skies and seasonable temperatures from Wednesday through next weekend.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

A warm air mass currently over the central US will begin to spread towards the region, with 850 mb temperatures expected to reach 18 degrees celsius over the area. With mostly sunny skies and a southwest wind, this will bring temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west. Due to the southwest wind, temperatures will be more variable east of NYC, ranging from the lower 80s near the southern/eastern sections of Long Island to the lower 90s in southern Connecticut away from the immediate coast. Parts of western Long Island may also reach the lower 90s.

Tuesday – Friday: Hot And Stormy, Then Sunny And Dry

The peak of the heat is expected to arrive on Tuesday, when 850 mb temperatures will be near 20 degrees celsius along with WSW winds. The cold front will also be moving through the region on Tuesday, however, bringing a risk of thunderstorms to the region, and the amount of cloud cover and storms near the area will determine how hot temperatures get across the area. If the area sees partly sunny skies with isolated storms, high temperatures should reach the mid 90s in the immediate NYC area with the heat index reaching the lower 100s. If the area sees mostly cloudy skies with widespread storms, however, temperatures will end up lower, peaking in the lower 90s at most in the immediate NYC area.

At this time, I am leaning towards the warmer scenario, expecting mid 90s in NE NJ and lower 90s for most locations west of NYC, with scattered thunderstorms. Storms that develop on Tuesday may end up becoming strong, producing gusty winds. Stay tuned for more information on Tuesday’s heat and potential storms.

Behind Tuesday’s cold front, a high pressure will move into the region, providing the area with sunny skies and cooler temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday. Wednesday will still be warm, with upper 80s in NE NJ, but Thursday through Saturday will bring high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. Temperatures will begin to warm up by Sunday/Monday.

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